Dec. 26, 2025 1:41 PM ETApplied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI) StockYiannis Zourmpanos13.67K FollowersCommentsSummaryApplied Optoelectronics, Inc. secured its first 800G hyperscaler volume order, removing qualification risk and confirming real demand beyond pilot or trial deployments.Q3 revenue miss was timing-related, with $6.6 million of shipped 400G revenue deferred into Q4 recognition.AAOI management guided Q4 revenue of $125–140 million, including $25–40 million sequential data center revenue growth.Shipment capacity is ramping from 10–20k units monthly to ~100k by year-end and ~200k by mid-2026.AAOI's valuation reflects execution risk, trading near 6x FY25 sales and ~3.6x FY26 sales if ramp materializes.Dimensions/E+ via Getty ImagesInvestment ThesisFor so long, Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI) was a ticker based on a transition narrative that had nothing to prove itself but was just somewhere in between traditional optics and what itThis article was written byYiannis Zourmpanos13.67K FollowersHi, I'm Yiannis. Spotting winners before they break out is what I do best.Experience: Previously worked at Deloitte and KPMG in external/internal auditing and consulting. Education: Chartered Certified Accountant, Fellow Member of ACCA Global, with BSc and MSc degrees from U.K. business schools. Investment Style: Spotting high-potential winners before they break out, focusing on asymmetric opportunities (with at least upside potential of 3-5X outweighing the downside risk). By leveraging market inefficiencies and contrarian insights, we seek to maximize long-term compounding while protecting against capital impairment.Risk management is paramount—we seek a strong margin of safety to protect against capital impairment while maximizing long-term compounding. Our 2-3 year investment horizon allows us to ride out volatility, ensuring that patience, discipline, and intelligent capital allocation drive outsized returns over time.Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of AAOI either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.Comments