Golden era: prices surge as rally heads towards US$5,000 in 2026, analysts forecast

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first time, reaching a record US$4,510 on Christmas Eve on Wednesday, which was 72 per cent higher than the end of last year, when it stood at US$2,624.This was the biggest annual jump for the precious metal, exceeding the 70 per cent rise in 1979, according to Brian Fung, CEO of the Hong Kong Gold Exchange. The increase followed a 26 per cent surge in 2024.Do you have questions about the biggest topics and trends from around the world? Get the answers with SCMP Knowledge, our new platform of curated content with explainers, FAQs, analyses and infographics brought to you by our award-winning team.Local prices rose in tandem, with gold in Hong Kong hitting a record HK$41,855 (US$5,382) per tael (37.51 grams) on Monday, according to the exchange.Fung expected the rally to continue in 2026, with prices potentially hitting US$5,000 per ounce."The gold rally in 2025 was driven by expectations of interest-rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, and tariffs introduced by US President Donald Trump," Fung told the Post. "Individual investors and central banks wanted to diversify away from US dollar assets, and gold became a safe-haven alternative."The Hong Kong government is rolling out big plans in 2026 to position the city as a global commodities trading hub. Photo: Shutterstock alt=The Hong Kong government is rolling out big plans in 2026 to position the city as a global commodities trading hub. Photo: Shutterstock>He said all the factors supporting gold showed "no sign of disappearing any time soon, which is why prices are set to go up further in 2026".Goldman Sachs lifted its gold price forecast for December 2026 to US$4,900 per ounce, with analyst Lina Thomas citing strong structural demand from central banks and easing by the US Federal Reserve.Morgan Stanley predicted US$4,500 per ounce by mid-2026, while Bank of America and JPMorgan both expected prices to surpass US$5,000 per ounce by the end of 2026.Fung said central bank buying remained a major driver of the rally. "Central banks traditionally invest in US Treasuries and other US dollar assets," Fung said. "But amid rate cuts and geopolitical tensions, they want to decrease their holdings in US dollar and gold has become a natural choice."Terms and Privacy PolicyPrivacy & Cookie SettingsMore InfoS&P 5006,931.11 -0.94 (-0.01%)Dow 3048,649.49 -81.67 (-0.17%)Nasdaq23,632.89 +19.58 (+0.08%)Russell 20002,532.63 -15.45 (-0.61%)VIX13.79 +0.32 (+2.38%)Gold4,562.80 +60.00 (+1.33%)Trending tickersTGT Target Corporation 98.94 +2.41 (+2.50%)XPEV XPeng Inc. 20.96 +1.39 (+7.10%)SLV iShares Silver Trust 69.86 +4.64 (+7.11%)SIDU Sidus Space, Inc. 2.3950 +0.1950 (+8.86%)CPNG Coupang, Inc. 24.89 +2.09 (+9.14%)PortfolioSign in to access your portfolioSign inTop gainersCPNG Coupang, Inc. 24.94 +2.14 (+9.39%)XPEV XPeng Inc. 20.95 +1.38 (+7.03%)PSLV Sprott Physical Silver Trust 25.59 +1.62 (+6.78%)ZETA Zeta Global Holdings Corp. 20.36 +1.25 (+6.53%)ELPC Companhia Paranaense de Energia 9.28 +0.42 (+4.69%)Top losersRGC Regencell Bioscience Holdings Limited 21.24 -3.36 (-13.68%)FLY Firefly Aerospace Inc. 23.67 -3.37 (-12.46%)TMC TMC the metals company Inc. 6.70 -0.92 (-12.14%)QBTS D-Wave Quantum Inc. 24.82 -2.70 (-9.81%)AAOI Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. 37.49 -3.51 (-8.56%)Most activeNVDA NVIDIA Corporation 192.39 +3.77 (+2.00%)TSLA Tesla, Inc. 478.48 -6.92 (-1.43%)PLUG Plug Power Inc. 2.0950 -0.0050 (-0.24%)NIO NIO Inc. 5.14 +0.23 (+4.58%)OPEN Opendoor Technologies Inc. 6.09 -0.20 (-3.11%)Top economic eventsEarnings eventsMy earnings eventsEarnings events