December 29, 2025 07:21 AM IST First published on: Dec 29, 2025 at 07:21 AM ISTNearly four decades ago, when Myanmar’s military crushed the 8888 pro-democracy uprising, India backed the protesters and offered refuge to fleeing citizens. By the early 1990s, New Delhi had to nuance its strategy as the military consolidated power and drew closer to China. Equally crucial was cooperation from the Tatmadaw to manage security challenges in the Northeast. After the February 2021 coup that deposed the democratically elected head of government, Aung San Suu Kyi, and triggered a prolonged civil war, India reaffirmed its “steadfast support for democratic transition” and has called for the restoration of democracy in Myanmar. That transition is now being tested, beginning with the first phase of a three-phase process on December 28, the first polls since the coup.As recently as December 26, India reiterated its support for free and fair polls, echoing PM Modi’s message to junta leader Min Aung Hlaing at the SCO, but Myanmar’s elections are being widely viewed, at home and abroad, as a “sham”. More than half of the parties that contested the 2020 election no longer exist. The military-controlled Union Election Commission has deregistered parties for failing to meet its criteria and dissolved Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy. At the ASEAN-UN Summit, UN Secretary-General António Guterres was blunt: “I don’t think anybody believes that those elections [in Myanmar] will be free and fair.” For Min Aung Hlaing, arguably, regional legitimacy matters more than Western or domestic approval, as neighbours prioritise border stability, tackling refugee flows and the thriving drug trade. Armed with Chinese weapons, the junta has been regaining lost ground.AdvertisementIndia’s challenge is to balance engagement with Naypyidaw and non-state actors who control large stretches of the border. For example, Delhi interacts with the rebel Arakan Army for the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project. To actualise its Act East policy, India needs a stable, sovereign neighbour outside China’s sphere of influence that can serve as a gateway to Southeast Asia. Delhi must press for a return to democracy in Myanmar while remaining a supportive neighbour, as demonstrated by its first-responder role after the devastating earthquake in March. Given that ties with Dhaka continue to be in flux, stability with other neighbours becomes all the more critical for India’s neighbourhood strategy.