Gold Weekly Outlook: Low Liquidity, High Risk AheadXAU/USD SpotFX:XAUUSDGold_RiderGold Price Outlook – Monday Dec 22, 2025 & Week Ahead Friday Close: Markets closed on Friday at 4338, up approximately $38 compared to the previous Friday. As always: No entry at the market open, allow the market 30–60 minutes to stabilize. Monday openings are usually full of swings and weekend gaps. A Dangerous Trading Week – Timing Matters We are approaching one of the most dangerous trading weeks of the year, not only because of news, but because of timing. This is a holiday week, with thin liquidity and approaching monthly & yearly closes. At such times, markets don’t build clean trends — they build traps. Market Schedule: - Monday & Tuesday: Full trading sessions, but reduced liquidity - Wednesday: Early close at 5:40 PM GMT - Thursday: Market closed Result: A thin, sensitive market that can react violently to any unexpected headline or comment. Geopolitical Files on Fire - Venezuela Political escalation continues. With Trump back strongly in the spotlight, no sudden escalation — economic or even military — can be ruled out. Markets don’t wait for events to happen… they price risk in advance. - Russia – Ukraine Public rhetoric from both Putin and Zelensky leans toward “ending the war.” However, political pressure — especially from Trump — may accelerate decisions. Any sudden announcement (deal, ceasefire, or failure of talks) could trigger sharp moves in gold. - The Federal Reserve Any statement — even a casual one — from a Fed member regarding Interest rates, inflation, jobs and unemployment could be enough to ignite the market, especially during a low-liquidity week, when the impact of words is amplified. - Key Technical Observation (Daily Chart) for those watching the daily gold chart, it is clear that long wicks and small candle bodies are not random. These are classic signs that “the party already started last week”: accumulation, distribution, stop-hunting, and preparation for a larger move. However, the real directional signal has not been confirmed yet. Weekly Trading Guidance: - This is not a week to build new positions - Reduce position size - Respect stop-loss more than targets - Do not chase price - If you’re not in the market… staying out is a smart decision Year-end gold does not forgive impatience, it rewards only those who understand liquidity behavior before direction. Chart Reading Overview (Monthly + Weekly + Daily + H4) Critical price levels will be analyzed step by step, followed by a summary of key supports and resistances for those who prefer the short version. First - Monthly Chart How Monday starts will likely determine gold’s direction until month-end. Bullish scenario (from the top): If price breaks: 4348 – 4354 – 4374 – 4383 Targets extend toward: 4400 – 4430 – 4450 – 4500 Bearish scenario (from the bottom): If price breaks: 4330 – 4320 – 4310 – 4300 Downside extends toward: 4244 – 4221 – 4188 – 4163 Second - Weekly Chart Levels largely align with the monthly chart. - Bullish continuation requires a break above 4354, targeting 4374 – 4381 – 4384 – 4400 – 4428 - Bearish continuation requires a break below 4316 – 4300 – 4295, targeting: 4271 – 4264 – 4245 – 4226 – 4196 – 4170 Third - Daily Chart The daily chart is the most concerning — showing indecision and aggressive swings. After inflation data on Thursday, we bought from 4328 and honestly expected a move toward 4400 due to strong bullish momentum. However, the drop from 4374 to 4322 was completely irrational — a classic year-end move. Scenarios remain aligned with higher timeframes: - Upside break: Above 4350 – 4356, targets: 4364 – 4367 – 4374 – 4382 – 4401 - Downside break: Below 4330, targets:4313 – 4308 – 4304 – 4285 – 4278 – 4271 – 4257 – 4246 -Fourth - H4 Chart Trend remains bullish, supported by MA 10 & MA 20 at 4332 & 4325. - Upside: Buying above 4351, first target 4356.50 then caution until clearing 4361 – 4374. A confirmed break may lead to a sharp historical high breakout above 4381, targeting 4400+. - Downside: A confirmed breakdown requires clearing:4330 – 4320 – 4313 – 4308 – 4300 – 4290 and before that, strong reactions from support remain possible. Support & Resistance Summary Resistance: (4348–4356) – (4361–4364) – (4368–4374) – (4381–4384) – (4400–4404) – (4420–4430) – 4450 – 4468 – 4484 – 4500 Support: 4329 – 4320 – (4316–4312) – (4308–4304) – 4300 – (4295–4290) – 4285 – 4278 – 4271 – (4264–4257) – 4246 – 4226 – 4200 – 4170 Monday Entry Scenarios Prefer waiting at least 30 minutes after the open - Bullish Scenario (Buy) - Entry: Above 4348 Targets: 4353–4356 → 4360–4364 → 4371–4374 → 4381–4384 → 4400–4410 → 4420–4430 → 4450 → 4468 → 4484 → 4500 - Bearish Scenario (Sell) - Entry: Below 4328 Targets: 4320 → 4314–4308 → 4301 → 4294 → 4285–4280 → 4275 → 4264 → 4257 → 4246 → 4230–4220 → 4208 → 4200 → 4170 Disclaimer: This analysis reflects a personal technical and macroeconomic view and is not financial advice. Trading involves high risk. All decisions are the trader’s responsibility. Wishing everyone a profitable and successful week.