Will a Euro buy $1.75 dollars by 2029? - December 2025Euro/US DollarFX:EURUSDwithout_worriesToday a Euro will buy you 1.178 dollars.. A forecast of 1.75 is 50% above. That's wild. In this report it is proposed a Euro could gain 50% dominance over the dollar during the next 2-3 years. That’s more than a forecast, that’s regime change. The majority of the move could very well be over in the next 18 to 36 months, look left at previous impulsive moves. In Forex, a move like that over 24 months would be unprecedented for major currencies in modern times without some significant economic shift (like high inflation in the US, Eurozone booming, or dollar losing reserve status, or a combination of all). Usually currency forecasts aren’t that extreme unless it’s a very long-term or speculative scenario. The highlights: A significant dollar value collapse Exports from the EU to the US become increasingly expensive. (Before the consideration of tariffs). A fall in US living standards continues (access to health care, affordable accommodation, global technological advancement while the US stands still, debts thwarting social mobility) “Opportunity cost”, Investors want assets denominated in appreciating currencies. Modest Euro based equity returns return far greater value than US listed equities that over-perform. How is this possible? Europe is burning, the end is nigh, haven't you seen the News? Headlines from the last 10 days: “Trump thrashes European leaders in wide-ranging interview: ‘I think they’re weak”. Said the man who promised he’d end the Ukraine war within 24 hours after taking office. How’s that going mate? Day 340 and counting. “The Real Reason Why the Trump Administration is So Mad at Europe” Spoiler: They’re not buying enough of our stuff, apparently. Which is rich coming from an administration currently in the process of telling everyone else to sod off and stop selling us stuff. “Donald Trump is pursuing regime change in Europe” Nothing says “Land of the free” quite like attempting to install puppet governments in allied democracies. Very on-brand. “Trump administration says Europe faces 'civilisational erasure” From the people who brought you “Me must take Greenland” and “Injecting bleach”, this is their geopolitical analysis. Brilliant. Europeans must be sat there with their espresso wondering, “Hang on, who’s the bigger threat, Putin with his obsolete tanks or Trump with his tariffs and tantrums?”. The rhetoric toward the European continent has been genuinely remarkable. Certainly in my lifetime and moreover, from an ally. But here’s the thing, and pay attention because this where it becomes interesting, every narrative eventually gets a chart and charts don’t lie. You don’t fling this amount of mud, whip up distraction, unless you want the gaze of media to focus elsewhere. The headlines aren’t coincidence, they are symptoms. Consider this absolute masterclass in economic self-sabotage the USA has arrived at today, which the media are blissfully ignoring: Relies heavily on Chinese imports (because making stuff is hard and China’s really good at it). Has erected trade barriers with most of their suppliers (Think Brexit but on steroids. And by the way, how is Brexit working out? Someone from the UK care to comment? Anyone?) Embraced a path of political uncertainty (Every day is like a lucky dip, except the prizes are all terrible.) Citizens randomly stripped of agency (Rights? What are those?) Tourists actively avoiding travel to America (Nothing says “Welcome” like the threat of detention and a complimentary cavity search). (Almost 6% of GDP comes from tourism, yeah $2.1 trillion and 15 million jobs). Argentina, could you have picked a worse moment to considering dollar adoption?! If there’s one thing investors absolutely despise, it’s political uncertainty. Does not matter if government is left, right, up, down, on day release from the lunatic asylum. Markets need confidence in what next year might look like, not anxiety about tomorrow’s 3am Truth Social post. They want year by year predictability, not day by day chaos. And here’s the kicker: When you throw up import barriers, tell your allies their civilisation is doomed, threaten tourists with detention… . then you're not just alienating people you are inadvertently telling the entire world that the US is closed for business. Investors will now ask themselves “Why should I hold onto dollars?”. De-dollarisation / US dollar hegemony The majority of dollars in circulation exist outside America. If you’re an international investor looking to de-risk US market exposure, then you’re more likely to sell dollars in favour for a more attractive investment at home. International investors do not hold dollars for the sake of it other than to purchase US assets. Turn that around, those same investors could spark a mass dollar sell off, collectively sending those dollars back to the US. The FED won’t need to print to free up liquidity in this event. Meanwhile, Europe remains open for business. As is Canada, Asia and South America. (UK not so much as they figure out who to tax next. They love taxes over there). You don’t need a PhD in economics to figure out the future, a history book will do that. Money like water flows to where it’s welcome. And right now America is basically extending the middle finger to international investors. The gloves are off, unless you’re delayed at passport control…. then the middle finger is.. moving on… The world, it seems, has had enough of dollar hegemony. US dollar dominance is declining gradually as nations diversify away from dollar dependence. It is well known multi decade trend, not an imminent crisis. This is not necessarily a bad thing for the US given the debt, a dollar value collapse would help melt the debt away. However the price is steep, a collapse in global influence and living standards. The fall in living standards is already notable in the US for outside observers, which is a rather grim set of circumstances to begin with if you're a worker resident in the US who gets by month to month. What’s happening exactly? The US dollar’s share of global foreign exchange reserves has dropped from 71% (2000) to approximately 58% (2024). Central banks are accelerating this shift with: 1. Gold purchases: Central banks bought record amounts in 2022-2023, with China, India, and other leading accumulation. 2. Bilateral trade: China-Saudi oil deals, India-Russia rupee-ruble trades, ASEAN local currency settlements 3. BRICS expansion: 9 members now representing 45% of global population, exploring alternative payment systems. Why it matters Sanctions accelerated the trend. After Russia’s SWIFT exclusion in 2022, countries with geopolitical concerns fast-tracked dollar alternatives. Even allies are hedging. But the dollar isn’t going anywhere soon. No currency rivals its liquidity, legal infrastructure, or depth of US capital markets. The Euro, Yuan, and others have structural limitations. But that does not mean dollar can operate with impunity as directed by US policy, far from it. What currency will benefit the most from a dollar collapse? The Euro. And the charts know’s it. Studied multiple currency pairs, with a natural bias leaning towards CNY. Imagine my surprise to see the Euro in a breakout with positive macro uptrend against CNY, the US dollar, and competing currencies. The Euro currency is set to outperform significant players. That is not necessarily a good thing for European countries, especially those with high debt to GDP ratios. If EUR rallies aggressively, it can: 1. Tighten financial conditions in Europe, 2. Drag inflation down, 3. and push the ECB toward easier policy relative to the FED However the trend is clear, the market has spoken, for the next few years it is clear where the game is. Euro vs Chinese Yuan Euro vs Japanese Yen Euro vs British pound The technical analysis The technical analysis suggests euro is about to enter a strong macro uptrend. Not just a continuation of the 14% move in a single year thus far, that was just a mere Amuse-bouche. No, the main course is yet to come. On the above 2 month chart: A clear uptrend, higher highs higher lows. Price action and RSI resistance breakouts. That blue line, that’s the 100 RMA (Rolling Moving Average), don’t ignore that line on any asset once support or resistance is confirmed. 3 month Dragonfly DOJI (see below) A typical 8 year run to the swing high. However that period is reduced to 2-3 years after the resistance breakout. The bull flag forecasts circa 50% rise until the flag target is met. The forecast should be met on or before 2030. 3 month chart Dragonfly DOJI Conclusions This is a long-cycle thesis, not a short term prediction. The core view is that EURO Vs USD is entering a multi-year uptrend as global investors incrementally diversify currency exposure as relative policy / fiscal backdrop becomes less supportive for the US dollar. The €1 = $1.75 outcome is a tail scenario, not the base case. A move of that magnitude would require a combination of material USD weakness, a persistent shift in global capital allocation, and sustained rate / growth dynamics that remain favourable to the Euro. It is not “normal” for such a macro move to occur over an 18-36 month period. But that’s exactly what happened during the period from 1985 to 1987, and 2002 to 2005. The technical structure supports an upward bias, but the macro will decide the ceiling. The chart setup (trend structure, breakout behaviour, and continuation patterns) argues for euro strength, yet the durability of any upside is ultimately constrained by fundamentals, rate differentials, growth, inflation credibility, and Europe’s sensitivity to a strong currency. What validates the thesis? Continued evidence of USD risk rising (fiscal and credibility), sustained euro resilience versus other currencies with price holding above key breakout levels on higher timeframes. What would invalidate the thesis? A clear re-acceleration in U.S. growth relative to Europe, a materially more hawkish FED path versus the ECB, or a breakdown back below the breakout structure on monthly closes. Should add, it would be perfectly normal to see a dollar spike during corrections in the stock market. That is normal, but not an invalidation to the macro outlook presented here. Perhaps a renewed USD safe haven bid is seen, in the event of a stock market crash, for example. But I see no evidence of that occurring. The recent idea “S&P 500 to 10,000 inside the next 4 years - December 2025” seems like a positive move for the stock market, no? But if the index rallies 40% and the underlying dollar drops the same if not more against other currencies, then no real value has been gained, just a re-pricing, a 4 year nothing burger. This brings us to the subject of “opportunity cost” Shrewd investors would be wise to find exposure of oversold European based businesses traded against the Euro before a dollar collapse. Many European listed stocks saw remarkable gains during the previous impulsive move whilst their US counterparts nosedived. Consider the missed opportunity here if you're a US investor during the 2000 to 2008 period: Volkswagen Group 1000% Ford motor company -90% We’re not saying or advocating a exit from US equities, but rather, US listed businesses are going to have a far harder hill to climb if you truly care about extracting value from the markets, not price. Ultimately this idea is about maximising your “Opportunity cost of capital” during uncertain times as one of the greatest wealth transfers in history is about to get underway. That opportunity will be life changing for those that understand the message written above. Ww ============================================================== Disclaimer This thesis is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, tax, or trading advice. All views expressed are opinions as of the date of writing and may change without notice. Past performance, backtests, and technical patterns are **not** reliable indicators of future results. You should conduct your own research, consider your financial situation and risk tolerance, and consult a qualified professional before making investment decisions. The author assumes no responsibility for any losses arising from the use of this material.