$BABA: Trade setup. Alibaba Group Holding Limited Sponsored ADRBATS:BABAWavervanir_International_LLCBABA | Weekly Structure → Options Play Price is sitting on long-term ascending channel support (~$150–153). This is a time + structure trade, not a momentum chase. 🎯 Core Thesis If channel support holds, mean reversion + trend continuation favors upside over the next few months. Options should be structured to let time work, not fight it. 🧠 Best Options Expression (High R:R, Controlled Risk) Primary Play: Long-Dated Call (Directional, Simple) Strike: $170 or $180 Expiration: June–September 2026 (6–9 months out) Why: Gives room for chop + retests Captures move toward $192 → $220 zone Lower theta pressure than short-dated calls This is the cleanest way to express a macro hold thesis. 🧱 Alternative (Lower Cost, Defined Window) Call Debit Spread (Capital Efficient) Buy: $160 Call Sell: $200 Call Expiration: June 2026 Reduces premium paid Caps upside, but aligns well with first major macro target (~$192) Better if IV expands later and you want structure over leverage ⏱️ Hold Duration & Management Intended hold: 8–16 weeks minimum Expect chop early — this is normal near channel support Consider trimming or rolling: Near $165–170 (first reaction zone) Near $190+ (macro supply) ❌ Invalidation (Non-Negotiable) Weekly close below ~$146 If that happens → structure fails → options thesis is wrong → exit. 🧩 Mental Model Stock = slow grind Options = time + structure bet You’re paying for patience, not fireworks Not advice. Just probability, structure, and risk defined.