On Sunday, the Indian National Congress announced an alliance with the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi VBA for the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation elections, agreeing to give 62 seats to the Prakash Ambedkar-led party. What stood out, however, was the absence of Prakash Ambedkar himself at the announcement.For the Congress, the arrangement makes electoral sense. It is expected to help bring together Dalit, OBC and minority votes, reduce vote division, and improve the party’s chances in closely contested wards. But any discussion on a Congress–VBA tie-up inevitably leads back to Ambedkar, whose political choices have often been difficult to predict.Over the years, Ambedkar has shifted positions on alliances, sometimes embracing partnerships and at other times sharply attacking the same parties. Supporters see this as an effort to protect the independence of Ambedkarite politics, while critics argue it has created uncertainty about the VBA’s long-term direction. That history makes this new alliance important, but also fragile, with its success depending as much on Ambedkar’s approach in the coming months as on electoral calculations.The Dalit vote in MumbaiDalits continue to be an important part of Maharashtra’s political landscape. As per the 2011 Census, Scheduled Castes in the state number about 1.32 crore, or nearly 12 per cent of the population, spread across more than 59 castes. The community is far from uniform. A significant section follows the Ambedkarite movement, especially the Mahar community, which embraced Buddhism under the influence of Dr B R Ambedkar as a rejection of caste discrimination. Neo-Buddhists today form a large share of the Dalit population, and their political choices are often shaped by issues of social justice and representation. A large chunk of this Ambedkarite community has been staunch backers of Prakash Ambedkar.In Mumbai, the Dalit population is smaller than the state average. Of the city’s residents, around 8.03 lakh, about 6.5 per cent, belong to Scheduled Castes. Even so, the presence of Neo-Buddhists is substantial. Estimates suggest that around six lakh Dalits in the city are Neo-Buddhists, making up nearly three-fourths of Mumbai’s Dalit population. Many of these voters supported the Congress-led Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, a level of consolidation that did not fully carry through to the Assembly polls later that year.By tying up with the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi, the Indian National Congress is seeking to reconnect with these Ambedkarite voters.Ambedkar’s unpredictabilityPrakash Ambedkar’s political record adds a layer of uncertainty to any alliance he enters. Over the past decade, he has alternated between sharp attacks on the Congress, tactical tie-ups with regional players, and occasional signals of openness to broader Opposition unity. This shifting approach has made it difficult for allies to assess how durable any partnership with him is likely to be.Story continues below this adAfter floating the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, Ambedkar entered into an alliance with the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen, led by Asaduddin Owaisi. The tie-up was aimed at consolidating Dalit and Muslim votes and delivered a notable result in Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar, where Imtiaz Jaleel defeated four-time Shiv Sena MP Chandrakant Khaire by a narrow margin.After the victory, VBA leaders accused Jaleel of sidelining Ambedkar and failing to acknowledge his role in shaping the alliance. The fallout soon led to a split, with the VBA blaming Jaleel for breaking the partnership.That rivalry has since influenced the VBA’s electoral choices, with the party repeatedly fielding candidates against Jaleel, including in the 2024 Lok Sabha and Assembly elections, where he lost narrowly. While Ambedkar himself avoids naming Jaleel publicly, senior VBA leaders continue to criticise him openly.Ambedkar’s subsequent political moves have followed a similar pattern. In January 2023, he announced an alliance with Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena UBT, even as the party remained part of the Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi. That understanding did not progress far. Ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, despite repeated statements from both sides about being open to talks, a formal deal between Ambedkar and the MVA never materialised, with Ambedkar often taking public swipes at alliance leaders.Story continues below this adThis unpredictability has had clear consequences. It has fuelled scepticism among voters, some of whom see the VBA less as a stable political party and more as a platform whose strategies change from election to election. The electoral impact is visible in the numbers. The VBA’s vote share fell from 6.92 per cent in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections to 2.77 per cent in 2024, and from 4.6 per cent in the 2019 Assembly elections to 2.21 per cent in 2024.Why Congress is taking the riskThe Congress’s decision to reach out to the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi stems from its shrinking options in Mumbai’s Dalit political space. For decades, the party relied on alliances with various factions of the Republican Party of India in the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation. Over time, however, most RPI groups were absorbed into the BJP’s broader political network, leaving the Congress without a dependable Dalit ally in the city.The tie-up with the VBA has emerged from this vacuum. Despite Prakash Ambedkar having publicly criticised the Congress as recently as last week, the party has chosen to take a calculated risk, betting that the potential gains among Ambedkarite voters outweigh the uncertainties attached to his leadership.Ambedkar’s remarks underline the tension. He said last week that the Congress does not have Hindu votes and that its success in local body polls comes mainly in tribal areas, adding that he refrains from speaking out further as it would only help the BJP.Story continues below this adThe comments prompted a guarded response from Maharashtra Congress president Harshvardhan Sapkal, who is widely seen as the architect of the alliance. He said the Congress was holding discussions honestly, but added that statements leading to division between the two parties were unfortunate.Ambedkar’s absence from the alliance announcement was officially attributed to prior commitments in Kolhapur. But his decision to stay away from a city-level event also reflects his effort to project himself as a leader with a larger state or national profile, rather than being tied too closely to a single municipal contest. For now, the Congress leadership has chosen to overlook these signals, focusing instead on the larger goal of consolidating Dalit support. How long that restraint holds may ultimately determine the stability of the alliance.