How the New Year’s tax deadline poses a risk for gold, silver and the Dow

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Silver SI00, gold GC00, shares of Nvidia NVDA, and stock-market indexes like the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, the S&P 500 SPX and the Nasdaq composite COMP have all surged in December, capping in some cases a remarkable run.Silver, up over 150% this year, rose more than 4% on the day after Christmas.Silver is turning into one of the hottest trades of 2025. Why this veteran investor is targeting $300 in a coming ‘mania’ phase.How the New Year’s tax deadline poses a risk for gold, silver and the Dow‘Is it a case of them or us?’ We’re in our 40s. Do we retire early in our 50s — or save for our kids’ education?Coincidence? Maybe not. Prices rise when there are more buyers than sellers. And where are the sellers for these investments right now? Who is going to sell before Dec. 31 when they can wait till Jan. 2 and put off booking a big taxable capital gain by a full year?It’s human nature to delay the bill as long as possible.The net result is that these prices are being driven artificially higher in the last few weeks of the year as sellers go on strike and wait for the new year.And this means rational investors should give some thought to locking in their profits by selling now instead of waiting.This isn’t a matter of market timing. Nor is it a matter of predicting future returns. It’s not about, say, selling silver because you think it’s overvalued and is going to fall in price in 2026. (That might be true, but then again, it might not.) It’s simply a matter of taking advantage of structural market irrationality. Late December is, by definition, a seller’s market for appreciated assets.What would it really be worth to delay those capital gains by a year? It may feel much better, but the mathematical gains probably aren’t as great. The risk-free rate of return is less than 4% a year, and falling.As always with taxes and personal finances, there are plenty of caveats. Everyone’s financial situation is different, including their financial needs and their tax exposure. This is only a general principle. But all other things being equal, if someone held silver and gold in a tax-sheltered account such as an IRA, the rational move would be to sell before the end of the year and buy again (if they wanted to) in January.On the other hand, December also typically generates a buying opportunity in assets that have fallen a long way. That’s because there is typically a flood of sellers who are rushing to cash in their capital losses for tax losses before the year’s end.Terms and Privacy PolicyPrivacy & Cookie SettingsMore InfoS&P 5006,929.94 -2.11 (-0.03%)Dow 3048,710.97 -20.19 (-0.04%)Nasdaq23,593.10 -20.21 (-0.09%)Russell 20002,534.35 -13.74 (-0.54%)VIX13.60 +0.13 (+0.97%)Gold4,552.70 +49.90 (+1.11%)Trending tickersBTC-USD Bitcoin USD 87,741.08 +356.27 (+0.41%)ETH-USD Ethereum USD 2,944.84 +19.72 (+0.67%)XRP-USD XRP USD 1.87 +0.03 (+1.50%)CVNA Carvana Co. 438.47 -3.10 (-0.70%)SOL-USD Solana USD 124.10 +1.98 (+1.62%)PortfolioSign in to access your portfolioSign inTop gainersELPC Companhia Paranaense de Energia 9.65 +0.79 (+8.92%)PSLV Sprott Physical Silver Trust 26.04 +2.08 (+8.68%)ZETA Zeta Global Holdings Corp. 20.70 +1.59 (+8.32%)CPNG Coupang, Inc. 24.27 +1.47 (+6.45%)XPEV XPeng Inc. 20.78 +1.21 (+6.18%)Top losersRGC Regencell Bioscience Holdings Limited 21.16 -3.44 (-13.98%)FLY Firefly Aerospace Inc. 23.34 -3.70 (-13.68%)TMC TMC the metals company Inc. 6.82 -0.80 (-10.50%)AAOI Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. 37.17 -3.83 (-9.34%)RGTI Rigetti Computing, Inc. 22.38 -2.13 (-8.69%)Most activeNVDA NVIDIA Corporation 190.53 +1.92 (+1.02%)TSLA Tesla, Inc. 475.19 -10.21 (-2.10%)PLUG Plug Power Inc. 2.0700 -0.0300 (-1.43%)ONDS Ondas Holdings Inc. 8.48 -0.65 (-7.12%)NIO NIO Inc. 5.10 +0.19 (+3.87%)Top economic eventsEarnings eventsMy earnings eventsEarnings events