December 28, 2025 07:36 AM IST First published on: Dec 28, 2025 at 06:45 AM ISTIn 2025, foreign policy and trade relations completely trumped domestic events. Even this columnist, though on unfamiliar territory, has perforce to focus on the all-important issue. Ironically, 2025 began on an optimistic note. “Unlike some, we are not nervous of a Trump-led US administration, there is a convergence of interests,” External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar had pronounced in January.Just months later, we were shell-shocked when Trump unilaterally slapped 25% tariffs on Indian goods, later upped to 50%. Our foreign office appeared to have little inkling of Hurricane Trump hitting our shores. But signs were evident in the aftermath of the Pahalgam terrorist attack. Our old adversary Pakistan, in the form of Field Marshal Asim Munir, outmanoeuvred us with the same agility with which he dispensed with the last vestiges of Pakistan’s democracy. Even before India could retaliate militarily for Pahalgam, Munir hastily tied up a hugely lucrative cryptocurrency deal with a Trump family firm, with the Trump’s business partner Zachary Witkoff making a flying visit to Pakistan. Munir was later greeted as an honoured guest by Trump. The US did not protest even when he boasted on its soil of destroying India, strangely comparing Pakistan to a dumpster truck and India to a shining Mercedes. He won Trump’s heart conclusively by announcing he was nominating him for the Nobel Peace Prize for ending the Indo-Pakistan conflict.AdvertisementFlat-footed diplomacyThe Indian diplomatic counter to Pakistan was flat-footed, pompous and preachy. One wonders why Modi arrived at Trump’s darbar empty-handed. Surely, one of our well-networked billionaires could have accompanied him? In contrast, Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s companion at the White House was holding a platter of rare-earth minerals, with the far-fetched claim that they were mined from insurgency-ridden Balochistan. Meanwhile, our clueless envoys were at sea in securing an entry into Trump’s inner circle, despite the services of highly paid lobbyists. With the MAGA legions targeting Indian immigrants for stealing jobs, the once vocal NRI lobby discreetly disappeared. A major diplomatic blunder was to repeatedly counter Trump’s boast that he had ended the war between nuclear neighbours. To pander to Trump’s ego, we could have simply thanked him for bringing Pakistan to its senses; giving credit without compromising our national sovereignty.Modi’s move of politely declining an invitation to the White House when he was next door in Canada was universally applauded. Munir was in Washington and Trump would no doubt have sought to get a photo of the two leaders together, hyphenating the two countries. But the jury is out as to whether the Tianjin summit in August, where Modi meaningfully held hands with Vladimir Putin and our old antagonist Xi Jinping was helpful. It was certainly a powerful statement that India had alternatives. An infuriated Trump dubbed India’s economy as “dead”, though the world’s fourth largest economy continues to grow at a fast pace. Modi’s absence from the Gaza Peace summit was noticeable, even as heads of states from Europe and the Gulf region displayed cringeworthy obeisance to Trump. Liberal Western commentators, for whom Modi has seldom been a favourite, hailed his credibility and independent position.Trump’s National Security Strategy, released this month, indicates that the US is pulling back from Indo-Pacific ties, even if it means destroying a strategic partnership with India built over 25 years as a counter to the looming Chinese threat. Trump now speaks, instead, of an exclusive G-2 club with China, whose economic, military and technological heft compelled him to retreat on tariffs. For the transactionally minded Trump, India’s bargaining chips are not so compelling.AdvertisementOutlier disadvantageIn a new multipolar world, India is an outlier. Despite the optics of bonhomie, China remains a major threat, both as Pakistan’s main military supplier and hostile claimant of our border territory. True doomsday predictions on the stalemate with the US on a tariffs deal were belied by all-time high exports this November and an impressive economic growth in 2025. On the downside, the rupee was Asia’s worst-performing currency because of trade uncertainty with the US leading to foreign investor outflows. In deal-making, India could perhaps learn a lesson from Pakistan. An offer of intent is not necessarily a delivery. The US will be hard-pressed to drill successfully for oil or mine peacefully for minerals in Balochistan, rife with rebellion, but Pakistan displayed ingenuity and audacity in offering a tempting deal. India, because of geography, an increasingly illiberal democracy and growing Hindu majoritarianism, which may work to the ruling party’s advantage domestically but harms the country’s reputation internationally, has an inbuilt disadvantage in foreign policy. We need to tread nimbly to face the challenge.