Skip to contentHome page Seeking Alpha - Power to InvestorsDec. 27, 2025 1:20 AM ETCrude Oil Futures (CL1:COM)DBE, JJETF, USO, DBO, USL, BNO, OILK, USOI, OLOXF, UCORon Patterson and Guests1.84K FollowersCommentsThis post reviews my method for estimating output from tight oil and shale gas plays.The tight oil scenario has a URR of 47 Gb, and the shale gas scenario has a URR of 219 TCF.I assume the average Permian well suffers pressure depletion, which reduces new well EUR.The medium-price tight oil scenario probably overestimates non-Permian tight oil for a low-price scenario by 25% or so.halbergman/iStock via Getty ImagesA guest post by D CThis post reviews my method for estimating output from tight oil and shale gas plays. The basic method involves convolution, which sounds complicated (or perhaps convoluted) but is fairly simple to accomplish usingThis article was written byRon Patterson and Guests1.84K FollowersRon Patterson is a retired Computer Engineer. He spent five years in Saudi Arabia working for Saudi ARAMCO. He has followed the peak oil story since 2000. Ron started blogging on peak oil in 2013. His web site, PeakOilBarrel.com is one of the most followed blogs on the subject. Ron's interest are geology, biology, paleontology, and ecology. His hobbies are blogging and kayak sailing. Ron is now retired and turned over the administration of the site to Dennis Coyne. Ron is still an active participant on the site and guests now provide timely posts.CommentsTo ensure this doesn’t happen in the future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser.Is this happening to you frequently? Please report it on our feedback forum.If you have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding. Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh.