Nvidia Is at a $5 trillion crossroads. What happens next?NVIDIA CorporationBATS:NVDASkillingNvidia has done something that very few companies in history have managed. It reached a market cap of $5 trillion in April, recovered from a geopolitical selloff that hit nearly every major stock, and is now sitting at record highs with its next earnings report just over two weeks away. The question the chart is now asking is simple: can it hold here? The numbers behind the move are not in dispute. Last quarter, revenue hit a record $68 billion, up 73% year on year. The company guided for roughly $78 billion in the current quarter, and that figure excludes any revenue from China. The hyperscalers — Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, Amazon — are spending more on AI infrastructure, not less. Every major earnings call this season has confirmed that the AI buildout is accelerating, and Nvidia remains the primary beneficiary. The next earnings release is scheduled for May 20, providing a clear near-term catalyst. That date is now shaping how traders are positioning. The question many traders appear to be asking is whether the results will be strong enough to justify the current price and whether the stock could move meaningfully higher as a result. Expectations heading into earnings are elevated, though outcomes remain uncertain. What the chart shows Nvidia spent much of the first quarter of 2026 under pressure. The Iran conflict, rising oil prices and inflation concerns weighed on growth stocks broadly, and Nvidia was not immune. The stock traded sideways for months despite consistently strong results. Then April arrived. As ceasefire hopes emerged and the broader market rallied sharply, Nvidia led the recovery, posting gains well ahead of the index and reclaiming record territory. The stock is now trading above both its 50 and 200-day moving averages, which have both turned back upward. That is a constructive technical picture. The key level to watch on the upside is the area just above current highs, where price discovery becomes more uncertain. To the downside, the 50-day moving average would be the first meaningful support if the market pulls back into the May 20 earnings date. Two scenarios heading into earnings If Nvidia reports revenue growth above 80% and provides strong forward guidance, the stock may extend its gains and attempt to build on current levels. The AI spending narrative remains intact, and any upside surprise could draw renewed momentum. If the results meet but do not meaningfully exceed expectations, or if guidance comes in cautiously given China headwinds, the stock could consolidate or pull back toward support. A market that has already priced in a strong quarter leaves less room for positive surprise. May 20 is the date. Between now and then, the chart tells you where the levels are. Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or recommendation to trade.70% of retail CFD accounts lose money. You should only invest money you can afford to lose. Past performance is not indicative of future results