Everyone is waiting for the fall to begin, but now it's a trapBitcoin / USDBINANCE:BTCUSDpnl_cultOn Tuesday, BTC almost touched 80k, after this local high for two months, a wave of sales began, caused by a massive outflow of ETFs (~ $200 mln) right before the Fed meeting. The decline accelerated due to massive liquidations of Long positions, but BTC held the 75k zone well and quickly rebounded without breaking the local low, gaining a foothold above 76k and returning to the 78.5k level on Friday. The NQ index fell back to 27.3 after a strong spill, the market bought off Powell's hawkish rhetoric and PMI compression to 49.2 (below 50 for the first time in several months) The DXY is at 98 and continues to weaken, although with such a high PCE, the dollar should have been rising by now. It is likely that the bond market is hoping for a rate cut in the summer, and this can be assumed, given Trump's desire to lower it as soon as possible and the appointment of his candidate for the post of the new head of the Fed. Another important signal is the spread between CME and Binance and Bybit. During the fall, it reached a large gap of $ 500, but now it has narrowed to 300. What does it mean? The funds partially closed the basis arbitrage in anticipation of the fact that the price will go up and the premium on CME will grow faster than the perps My forecast for this week's opening is an update to the local 79k high and a move to the 80k zone and above. ETF flows returned on Friday (~630 mln), and this amount confirms that this is not the end yet. Michael Saylor has announced new BTC purchases, and MicroStrategy usually buys on Mondays. There is no expected release of important macro data next week that could shake the market, and BTC still has a large unclosed two-month gap above 80k. At the moment, the price may technically move in this direction if the market does not see black swans in the geopolitical situation. Globally, I am inclined to a bearish trend and a hike to the 50k area in the coming months, but before that there should be a final rebound to values above 80k, after which we can start considering shorts