The results of the elections to the 140-member Kerala Assembly, which are going to be declared on Monday, will determine whether the state is embracing a long-term political stability under the incumbent CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) or see the return of the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF).The LDF has been ruling the state for the last two terms under Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, which in the 2021 elections broke the state’s tradition of alternating change of guard between the LDF and the UDF every five years.AdvertisementVijayan factorCPI(M) stalwart and two-term CM Vijayan has been the face of the LDF’s campaign, making this election into a referendum on his leadership and governance record. If the LDF manages to buck the state’s “anti-incumbency” trend and returns to power even with a slim margin, Vijayan will emerge stronger not only within his own party but in the entire Left ranks, securing another term of free hand in government and the organisation.Also read | Who will be Kerala CM if Congress comes to power? Ally IUML backs Satheesan, adds to intrigueKnown for his centralised style of functioning, the polls are another test for Vijayan’s leadership and governance. The outcome will also show whether the perceived internal dissent among a section of the CPI(M) supporters over the CM’s perceived bid to prioritise electoral success over political ideology has played any role in shaping the polls.CPI(M)’s chancesThe CPI(M) had suffered setbacks in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and the 2025 local body elections in Kerala. It remains to be seen whether voters have been influenced by “anti-incumbency” in the current Assembly polls.AdvertisementIf the Left loses power in Kerala, it would mark the first time since 1977 that there would not be any Communist government in any state in the country.The poll results will also determine whether Vijayan, 80, will remain the CPI(M)’s leader in the Assembly in the event of a loss, or the party will opt for a generational shift by bringing in a younger face to lead the party in the legislative politics.In the wake of the CPI(M)’s defeat in Bengal after a 34-year rule in 2011, followed by its loss of power in Tripura in 2018, Kerala has now remained the lone Left-ruled state.Shashi Tharoor writes | Et tu, Kerala? Rise of identity politics threatens social cohesion, governanceCongress’s prospectsAmong the four states and a Union Territory where elections were recently held, Kerala is the only state where the Congress is in pole position while leading an alliance. So, in the event of the UDF’s victory, the grand old party will head the new regime.The Congress reckons that factors like “anti-incumbency” and “voters’ fatigue” towards the LDF regime would clear the decks for the party’s return to the helm of the state government. After remaining in the Opposition since 2016, the Congress cannot afford another defeat in the state. The party leadership is aiming for a clear majority on its own to establish its dominance in the UDF and counter perception about its junior ally IUML’s “decisive influence” over the coalition. In 2011, the UDF had got 72 seats, just one seat more than the simple majority. In its regime then led by CM Oomen Chandy, the IUML had been accused of “calling the shots” on various matters.High stakes for BJPThe BJP, which has been expanding its footprint in the state, is trying to break the template of bipolar politics in Kerala. The party is looking to pick a few seats and winning back Nemom, which it had lost in 2021 when it had drawn a blank.In the local body elections in December 2025, the BJP pulled off a historic win in the Thiruvananthapuram Municipal Corporation. In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the pary had won the Thrissur seat.During its campaign this time, the BJP leadership stepped up to convert its Thiruvananthapuram civic body victory into winning a few Assembly seats in the region. The fate of the LDF and the UDF in several constituencies may depend on the BJP’s vote share there too.you may likeThe poll results would also have a bearing on state BJP president Rajeev Chandrasekhar’s leadership. The party has fielded a slew of fresh candidates and allotted several crucial seats to its ally Twenty20 Party, overruling resentment among a section of local workers.Polarisation effectThe outcome will also show whether there has been a consolidation of minority votes in favour of the UDF in the wake of the latter’s allegation of a “deal” between the CPI(M) and the BJP to keep the Congress away from power for another term.In 2021, the CPI(M) had benefited from the rallying of the minorities round the LDF. However after facing a debacle in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the CPI(M) tried to make an outreach to Hindu voters. The verdict, especially from Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam and Alappuzha districts, would indicate the degree to which the CPI(M) would hold on to its Hindu vote base.