TOTAL2 at $1T: Bottom of the Cycle or Top of the Bounce?Crypto Total Market Cap Excluding BTC, $CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2tradeParagonTOTAL2 — total crypto market cap excluding Bitcoin — just tested two structural supports at the same level: the 200-week SMA and the multi-year ascending trendline that has supported every cycle low since 2020. Both lines met near $917B. The level held. Price is now testing $1T as overhead resistance. The bounce is in progress. The question is whether it has fuel. The bull case for TOTAL2 A clean test of the 200W SMA + trendline confluence — and a hold — is the same setup that resolved bullishly in mid-2024. Each prior touch of this confluence preceded a 30%+ recovery within 120–145 days. A weekly close above $1.0T confirms the reclaim of psychological resistance, with $1.2T as the first mid-cycle target. Holding the 200W as support keeps the long-term bullish channel intact. The bear case for TOTAL2 Two cycle highs at $1.7T — May 2021 and mid-2025 — form a long-term double top. The 2025 peak rejected the 2021 high almost to the dollar. That is not random. Weekly RSI printed a lower high against the higher price high — bearish divergence intact. A failed reclaim of $1.0T sends the chart back to the confluence; a break of the confluence opens $700B and the prior cycle structural floor. Double tops on multi-year timeframes resolve over years, not weeks. Levels to watch Resistance: $1.0T psychological, $1.2T mid-cycle, $1.6T–$1.7T double-top neckline Support: 200W SMA (~$917B), ascending trendline, $700B structural floor The confluence held. Whether $1T flips from resistance to support is the next decision the chart asks the market to make.