$CRWV 𝐅𝐥𝐨𝐰-𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐅𝐨𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐭

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$CRWV 𝐅𝐥𝐨𝐰-𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐅𝐨𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐭 CoreWeave, Inc. Class ABATS:CRWVWavervanir_International_LLCCRWV ⚡ 𝐅𝐥𝐨𝐰-𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐅𝐨𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐭 — 𝐌𝐚𝐲 𝟕 𝐄𝐚𝐫𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐬 𝐁𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐫𝐲 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 𝐒𝐓𝐑𝐔𝐂𝐓𝐔𝐑𝐀𝐋 𝐂𝐎𝐍𝐓𝐄𝐗𝐓 CoreWeave broke the descending trendline from June 2025 highs ($189) on the April rally. Currently consolidating above the 0.786 fib retracement at $112.59, with the May 1 close at $119.01 reclaiming the 0.886 fib level. The fib measured move from the September low ($64.82) to the December high ($124.96) sets the upside extension targets. 𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐥𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐥𝐬: ▸ Resistance: $124.96 (1.0) → $138.64 (1.236) → $160.69 (1.618) ▸ Support: $112.59 (0.786) → $103.28 (0.618) → $64.82 (structural floor) ▸ Invalidation: loss of $103.28 closes the structural breakout case ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 𝐂𝐀𝐓𝐀𝐋𝐘𝐒𝐓 — 𝐌𝐚𝐲 𝟕 𝐀𝐌𝐂 Q1 2026 earnings, conference call 5:00 PM ET. Implied move ±12.67% (~$15). 𝐁𝐮𝐥𝐥 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐬𝐢𝐬: ▸ Citi PT $155, Oppenheimer $150, Wells Fargo $135 — momentum chorus ▸ Jane Street committed $6B in compute capacity ▸ Backlog growth expected 35-40% QoQ ▸ Mgmt likely to raise FY26 guidance beyond $12-13B 𝐁𝐞𝐚𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐬𝐢𝐬: ▸ MSFT = 67% of FY25 revenue (concentration risk) ▸ $1B senior notes priced at 9.75% (debt market skepticism) ▸ Q4 2025 net loss $452M, debt-to-equity 4.46 ▸ Active securities fraud class action overhang ▸ Insider selling >$23M late April ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 𝐎𝐏𝐓𝐈𝐎𝐍𝐒 𝐅𝐋𝐎𝐖 𝐒𝐈𝐆𝐍𝐀𝐋 Apr 30 directional flow score: −0.47 (−2σ outlier across 24-session sample). Lag-1 flow→return correlation: +0.41. 𝐈𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠: ▸ 10,000 contracts May 8 95P bought at ask ($2.04M tail hedge) ▸ $4.74M Oct 155C sold at bid (call-side distribution) ▸ $3.64M May 15 100C bid-hit (deep ITM exits) ▸ Counter: Apr 29 LEAPS demand — Dec 2028 120C $3.93M block, Jun 130C/135C swept 𝐑𝐞𝐚𝐝: smart money is long the platform, short the event. Hedging the gap risk while keeping the long-term thesis intact. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 𝐌𝐎𝐍𝐓𝐄 𝐂𝐀𝐑𝐋𝐎 𝐅𝐎𝐑𝐄𝐂𝐀𝐒𝐓 (𝟓,𝟎𝟎𝟎 𝐩𝐚𝐭𝐡𝐬) 𝐏𝐫𝐞-𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐬 𝐝𝐫𝐢𝐟𝐭 (𝐭𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐞): May 4: $118.66 │ May 5: $118.27 │ May 6: $118.14 │ May 7: $118.13 𝐏𝐨𝐬𝐭-𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐬 𝐛𝐢𝐦𝐨𝐝𝐚𝐥 𝐬𝐩𝐥𝐢𝐭: ▸ Bull regime (52% paths): May 8 → $131.84 → May 14 → $133.94 ▸ Bear regime (37% paths): May 8 → $104.60 → May 14 → $100.23 ▸ Muted regime (11% paths): chops $115-$122 𝐏𝐫𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐨𝐮𝐜𝐡 𝐛𝐲 𝐌𝐚𝐲 𝟏𝟒: ▸ $124.95 → 66.4% │ $138.64 → 34.5% │ $160.69 → 10.3% ▸ $112.59 → 61.8% │ $103.28 → 34.8% │ $90.00 → ~12% ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 𝐄𝐗𝐄𝐂𝐔𝐓𝐈𝐎𝐍 𝐅𝐑𝐀𝐌𝐄𝐖𝐎𝐑𝐊 ▸ May 4-6: avoid weeklies. IV crush + bearish hedge flow + gamma decay = three-way structural headwind for short-dated long premium ▸ May 7 close: last clean exit window before AMC binary ▸ May 8 open: 30-min price discovery rule. No chasing in either direction ▸ Bull confirmation: hold $122 on May 8 close → load Jun 18 130C, target $138 by May 14 ▸ Bear confirmation: lose $108 on May 8 close → invalidation toward $103 then $90 tail ▸ Risk discipline: position size assumes binary asymmetry, not symmetric distribution