The BJP’s decisive victory in West Bengal, ending 15 years of Mamata Banerjee’s rule, was emphatic in its spread across the state. If the party held on to its bastion in North Bengal, it made inroads into South Bengal, including the Presidency division which was so far the Trinamool Congress’s impregnable fortress.The BJP also regained its dominance in the tribal belt of Junglemahal, changing its messaging as per the issues of the three regions.South Bengal: 240 seats; voted in 2nd phaseAdvertisementThis region comprises the Presidency division, including Kolkata, Howrah, Nadia, North and South 24 Parganas, which has long been considered a TMC stronghold. It is also the state’s power centre with five CMs of the state winning from this region, including the CPI(M)’s Jyoti Basu, his successor Buddhadeb Bhattacharya and now Mamata (Bhabanipur).This time, three key factors were at play in the region, comprising semi-urban and urban areas, against the TMC: huge anti-incumbency, Hindu vote consolidation, and anger at the party’s “goondagiri”. The BJP reaped the gains of all.So, in the Presidency division, the BJP is poised to win 27 seats. These include 6 of 11 in Kolkata (Rashbehari, Maniktala, Jorasanko, Chowringhee, Kashipur-Belgachia and Shyampukur), with the remaining 5 set to go to the TMC (Bhabanipur, Kolkata Port, Ballygunge, Beleghata and Entally).AdvertisementBhabanipur is Mamata’s constituency and, after 14 out of 20 rounds of counting and much see-sawing, she was holding on by the skin of her teeth against bete noire Suvendu Adhikari of the BJP.In North 24 Parganas, the BJP is on course to win 18 seats, compared to the TMC’s 15. Several TMC ministers such as Sashi Panja (Shyampukur), Chandrima Bhattacharya (Dumdum Uttar), Aroop Biswas (Tollygunge) and Bratya Basu (Dumdum) trailed here.The BJP also appeared to have put the TMC behind in South 24 Parganas seats like Gosaba, Sagar, Diamond Harbour.Apart from the Presidency division, in South Bengal, the BJP made gains in Birbhum, Paschim Bardhaman, Hooghly and Purba Medinipur districts.In Purba Medinipur, the TMC was staring at a wipeout while the BJP was ahead in 16 seats. In Birbhum, known as a TMC bastion, the BJP was ahead in 7 seats and the TMC in 4. In Purba Bardhaman, the BJP led in 9 seats and the TMC in 7. In Hooghly, the BJP was ahead in 15 seats, and the TMC in 3.Past results of Presidency division: In the 2006 Assembly polls, the CPI(M)-led Left Front won 72 of the 111 seats here. In 2011, when the TMC swept to power for the first time, the party and Congress won 89 of these seats. In 2016, the TMC further consolidated its position, winning 91 seats.In the last Assembly elections of 2021, despite the BJP’s push, particularly following its strong showing in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls in Bengal, the TMC further strengthened its base in the Presidency division, winning 96 seats.Of the BJP’s 77 seats in the polls, only 14 came from the Presidency division.One seat in the region was won by the Indian Secular Front (ISF), a Left ally making its political debut.That the BJP was gaining, however, was clear in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, when the party’s performance translated into 21 Assembly segments here, though the TMC held on with 90.The BJP gained here despite the party finishing with fewer Lok Sabha seats in 2024 in the state, compared to 2019 – 12, down from 18.North Bengal: 54 seats; voted in 1st phaseThe BJP held on to its bastion here, and by evening, led in 27 of the 54 seats in the region, including Alipurduar, Jalpaiguri, Darjeeling, Coochbehar and Kalimpong districts.North Bengal includes Darjeeling Hills, tea belt and Rajbongshi-dominated areas, where the BJP has done well since 2019.The BJP hit all the right notes here, promising a permanent solution to the Gorkhaland issue, and appointing an interlocutor for talks recently. After his helicopter could not land due to bad weather for a campaign rally, Union Home Minister Amit Shah sent a message by speaking to the people of Darjeeling virtually.In the tea belt, low wages and closed gardens went against the ruling TMC, even as the Centre rolled out promises.In Coochbehar, the BJP has long wooed the Rajbongshi community. The Rajbongshi or Koch-Rajbongshi community consists of more than 33 lakh people in the districts of Cooch Behar, Jalpaiguri, Darjeeling, Malda and Murshidabad districts.The TMC did better in the Uttar and Dakshin Dinajpur districts. While in Uttar Dinajpur, the BJP was ahead in 4 seats compared to the TMC’s 5, in Dakshin Dinajpur, both the TMC and BJP could take home 3 seats. In Malda, once a Congress bastion, the BJP led in 8 seats, the TMC in 4.Past results: In 2019, North Bengal had contributed to the BJP’s record performance in the parliamentary elections in the state, with the party winning 7 of the 8 Lok Sabha constituencies in the region. Overall, it had won 18 of the 42 seats in the state.In 2021, the TMC made an improvement, winning 23 Assembly seats against the BJP’s 30. Later, of the 2 MLAs of the BJP who won from Uttar Dinajpur district, Krishna Kalyani switched to the TMC. Kalyani, who contested on a TMC ticket, is staring at a loss from Raiganj now.In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP made a comeback, winning 6 of the 8 parliamentary seats, translating to leads in 31 Assembly segments. The TMC’s tally came down to 17 Assembly segments, while the Congress was ahead in 6.The tribal belt in South Bengal: 40 seats; voted in 2nd phaseThe BJP has regained its dominance in the tribal belt of Junglemahal, leading in all 4 seats in Jhargram district and all 9 in Purulia. In Bankura, it led in 11 of the 12 seats, with the TMC leading in 1. In Paschim Midnapore district, the BJP looked set to win 12 seats to the TMC’s 3. Among the TMC leaders staring at a defeat was state Forest Minister Birbaha Hansda (Binpur).The tribal belt did not see any impact of the SIR, with very low deletion of names, but governance issues such as the lack of housing and drinking water dominated in the area once hit by Maoism.Ahead of the polls, a glut in potato production, leading to a sharp fall in prices, also had an impact here, especially in Bankura.During the campaign, the BJP, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, highlighted what they called “apman (insult)” of President Draupadi Murmu, a tribal, during her visit to Bengal – a reference to CM Mamata Banerjee and her Cabinet ministers not being present to receive her when she arrived in the state. Murmu had expressed her anguish publicly over this, and alleged that police had changed her programme venue abruptly.The BJP also successfully wooed the Kurmi community, who have been agitating for long for ST status. The Kurmis held sway in a number of seats along with tribals. The BJP promised them that Kurmali language will be included in the national language list.Kurmi leader Rajesh Mahato was fielded by the BJP from Gopiballabhpur and looked set to win. Kurmi leader Ajit Mahato’s son Biswajit Mahato also seemed headed for victory, on a BJP ticket from Joypur.Past results: Once a stronghold of Left parties and deeply affected by Maoist insurgency, Junglemahal transitioned to the TMC after 2011.While in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP found its opening, sweeping Jhargram and Bankura, in the 2021 Assembly polls, the TMC clawed back, winning 24 of 40 seats, with the BJP managing 16.Even in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the tribal belt seemed to stand with the TMC, with the party ahead in 30 Assembly segments and the BJP in 10.