EUR/USD: Key test ahead of jobs dataEuro/US DollarFX:EURUSDXBTFXThe most important weekly event was the FOMC meeting, where the Fed left rates unchanged, which was broadly in line with expectations. The next day brought the PCE Price Index for March, which increased by 0,7% m/m and 3,5% y/y in line with expectations. Core PCE in March was at the level of 0,3% m/m and 3,2% y/y. Personal income was increased by 0,6% m/m while Personal spending was higher by 0,9% m/m. As for other macro data posted for the US, Building permits preliminary for March reached 1,372M, slightly lower from estimated 1,39M. Durable Goods Orders preliminary for March were higher by 0,8% for the month, higher from forecasted 0,5% m/m. The ISM Manufacturing PMI in April was at the level of 52,7, in line with forecasts. The ECB also had its meeting during the week, where rates were left unchanged, in line with expectations. The GfK Consumer Confidence in May in Germany was at the level of -33,3, lower from forecasted -29,5. The economic sentiment in the Euro Zone in April was at the level of 93,0 a bit lower from forecasted 95,2. The preliminary inflation rate in Germany in April was 0,6% m/m and 2,9% y/y, just a bit lower from the forecasted 3,0% y/y and 0,8% m/m. Retail sales in Germany dropped by -2% in March, which is the same as yearly effect. This figure was highly below the estimated drop of -0,1% m/m. Preliminary GDP Growth rate for Q1 in Germany was at 0,3% q/q and 0,3% y/y, in line with expectations. At the same time, the GDP Growth rate in the Euro Zone, preliminary for Q1 was 0,1% q/q and 0,8% y/y. The inflation rate in the Euro Zone in April was 1% m/m and 3% y/y, while core inflation held at 2,2% y/y. The unemployment rate in March in the Euro Zone was 6,2%, 1pp lower from the previous month. During the previous week EUR/USD currency pair was moving in a mixed manner. This is not unusual considering that both Fed and ECB held their meetings and discussed economic conditions and interest rates. Currently, both sides have their own issues to cope with. The lowest weekly level of the pair was 1,1658 while high was 1,1742. Friday brought a strong shift toward the 1,1787, however, soon the market returned back toward the 1,1720 level. The RSI is still oscillating around the level of 50, indicating that the market is still struggling to choose the trading side. The MA50 continued to diverge from MA200 after the two lines made a cross some two weeks ago. At this moment on charts, the currency pair found a relatively stronger support around 1,1670, which is holding for the last two weeks. Friday's move brought a new potential path for the currency pair, leading to a test of 1,18 resistance. For the week ahead, there are two potential scenarios. One scenario favors probability that the market will try to properly test the 1,18 resistance, which might end around the 1,1820 level. The second scenario favors downside, where the currency pair might revert again toward the 1,1670, in which case 1,1640 might also be shortly tested. Both scenarios currently have the same probability of occurrence. It should be also considered that Friday will be another volatile day, with the release of NFP and Unemployment data for March. Important news to watch during the week ahead are: EUR: S&P Global Composite PMI final for April for both Germany and the Euro Zone, Producers Price Index for the Euro Zone in March, Factory orders in Germany in March, Retail Sales in April in the Euro Zone, Balance of trade in Germany in March, Industrial Production in Germany in March, USD: ISM Services PMI for April, JOLTs Job Openings in March, Non-farm payrolls in April, Unemployment rate in April, Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary in May.