Gold prices fluctuate at high levels, poised for a new breakthro

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Gold prices fluctuate at high levels, poised for a new breakthroGold / U.S. DollarFOREXCOM:XAUUSDgold_lizGold prices fluctuate at high levels, poised for a new breakthrough. I. In-depth Analysis of Fundamentals Core Driving Logic Policy Expectations Support the Bottom Market expectations for a Fed rate cut this year continue to rise, limiting the dollar's upside potential. The risk of a US government shutdown is causing economic uncertainty and stimulating safe-haven demand. Geopolitical risks are solidifying. Trade tensions and multiple political risks are creating structural support. Global capital continues to use gold as a ballast for asset allocation. Focus of the Bull-Bear Game Improving Risk Sentiment (Short-Term Negative) vs. Macroeconomic uncertainty (long-term bullish) Gold prices seek a new equilibrium amidst contradictions II. Accurate technical analysis Trend structure analysis Daily chart pattern: A large bullish candlestick completes a reversal to a new high, confirming the continuation of the bullish trend Price is trading above the moving average system, and the overall structure remains strong Momentum monitoring: Stagflation signals appear at high levels, weakening short-term momentum Confirmation of the market transition from a one-way upward trend to a high-level oscillation Key price system Resistance area: $4300-4320 (a breakout opens new potential) Support area: $4245-4230 (bullish lifeline) Oscillating range: $4230-4320 (main battlefield for wide-ranging consolidation) III. Trading strategy and position management Main tactical configuration Trend-following low-buy strategy Entry point: Stabilization signal in the 4245-4230 area Stop loss: below 4215 Target: 4280-4300 Breakthrough pursuit strategy Confirmed upward breakout After 4320, go long with a light position. Stop loss: 4290 Target: 4350-4380 Risk Management Tips Single position size ≤ 15%, avoid heavy positions in volatile markets. Use a phased profit-taking strategy (4300/4320/4350). Be wary of false breakouts and strictly set physical stop-losses. IV. Response Plans for Special Market Conditions Position Management Guide Long positions: Reduce positions by 50% in the 4300-4320 area and cover after a breakout. Short positions: Wait for a stabilization signal in the 4230-4250 support area. Wrong entry: Stop loss immediately and avoid mid-term corrections in volatile markets. Risk Warning The progress of the US government shutdown may trigger unexpected fluctuations. Speech by Federal Reserve officials may change the expected path of interest rate cuts. Geopolitical events may break the technical range. V. Professional Trader's Perspective The current market is in a trend consolidation phase. Given solid fundamental support, any technical pullback presents an opportunity to invest in long positions. We recommend adopting a dual-track strategy of "building positions in phases at support levels and increasing positions in line with breakout levels" to mitigate volatility while ensuring continued trend activity. Key Points: Focus on the strength of support at 4230 and the resistance test at 4320. A breakout of this range will determine the direction of the next phase of movement towards the $200 level.