EURUSD Technical Analysis: The focus turns to the US CPI report

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FundamentalOverviewThe USD strengthened a biton Friday following some positive Trump’s comments on China as Treasury yieldsbounced and erased the Thursday’s losses. Overall, the US dollar performancehas been mixed as markets have been driven by quick changes in risk sentimentsince Trump’s tariffs threat. On the domestic side, theUS government shutdown continues to delay many key US economic reports. Thedollar “repricing trade” needs strong US data to keep going, especially on thelabour market side, so any hiccup on that front is weighing on the greenback. The BLS will release the USCPI report on Friday despite the shutdown, so that’s going to be a key riskevent. That will need to be seen in the context of US-China relations and anynegative shock by that time though. If things go south, then the CPI will notmatter much as growth fears will trump everything else. On the EUR side, the singlecurrency found support last week as the French political risk eased afterLecornu survived the no-confidence vote. On the monetary policy side, nothinghas changed. The ECB is not expected to adjust rates for a long time unless weget significant deviation from their inflation target. In fact, the vastmajority of ECB members is comfortable with the current rate setting and willnot respond to small or short-term deviations from their target barring a clearshock in the economy.EURUSD TechnicalAnalysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we cansee that EURUSD avoided a key downside breakout last week. The price eventuallybounced back and extended the rally into the 1.17 handle before pulling back. Ifthe pullback extends into the key support around the 1.1573 level, we canexpect the buyers to step in there with a defined risk below the support toposition for a rally into the 1.18 handle next. The sellers, on the other hand,will want to see the price breaking lower to pile in for a drop into the 1.14handle. EURUSD TechnicalAnalysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, there’snot much we can glean from this timeframe as the buyers will better offstepping in around the support, while the sellers will look for a downsidebreakout. EURUSD TechnicalAnalysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor downward trendlinedefining the current pullback. If the price comes back into the trendline, wecan expect the sellers to lean on it with a defined risk above it to keeppushing into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a breakhigher to pile in for a rally back into the 1.17 handle. The red lines define average daily range for today. UpcomingCatalystsThe focus remainson the US-China developments but on Friday we will also get the US CPI report, and the Eurozone and US Flash PMIs. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.