50 bps RBNZ risk: NZD/USD targets and key levels New Zealand Dollar vs US DollarBLACKBULL:NZDUSDBlackBull_MarketsThe Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is widely expected to lower its interest rate at its 8 October meeting, though the scale of easing remains in debate. Market pricing currently leans toward a 25 basis-point reduction, with a roughly a 55.5% probability of that outcome and 44.5% odds of a larger cut. Scenario Analysis If the RBNZ cuts by 25 bps: • As this is the base case, markets might only see modest downside pressure on NZD/USD. The pair could drift toward 0.5750 and potentially 0.5700 if the Bank signals further easing ahead. If the RBNZ cuts by 50 bps: • A larger-than-expected cut could accelerate NZD selling, particularly if accompanied by a dovish tone. In this scenario, NZD/USD could break below 0.5750 support and test 0.5600 in the days following the decision. If the RBNZ holds rates steady: • A surprise hold could trigger a short-covering rally, pushing the pair back above 0.5900 and potentially retesting the 0.6000 area as traders reprice the path of policy easing.