HINDUNILVR: Investment IDEA, GST Impact => New HorizonHindustan Unilever LimitedNSE:HINDUNILVRDSKF16Overview The stock is currently trading at ₹2,536.20, up ₹21.80 (0.87%) from the previous close, with an open of ₹2,515.40, high of ₹2,550.00, and low of ₹2,497.90. Volume for the session is 1.48 million shares. Overall, the stock has shown volatility amid a mix of macroeconomic factors, company-specific developments, and sector trends in the FMCG (fast-moving consumer goods) space. Hindustan Unilever, a subsidiary of Unilever, reported solid first-half 2025 results with underlying sales growth of 3.4%, driven by 1.5% volume growth and 1.9% price increases, supporting full-year confidence. However, temporary sales disruptions arose from goods and services tax (GST) cuts on consumer products in September 2025, leading to a short-term hit on sales. Shares pared early losses on hopes of demand recovery as prices stabilize. A leadership change occurred with Priya Nair appointed as CEO effective August 1, 2025, succeeding Rohit Jawa, amid efforts to invigorate the sluggish consumer giant. Brokerages view HINDUNILVR (in BSE: HUL) as a long-term buy with potential 16-31% returns in 2025. Some views posted recently in Social Network discussions reflect positive trader sentiment, with mentions of bullish breakouts, long positions, and high-frequency trading (HFT) indicators performing well on HINDUNILVR. Some users highlighted it as a portfolio winner (up 8.79% in one example) and a watchlist stock alongside other FMCG names like Britannia and Nestle. Price Action and Trends The chart depicts a volatile year for HINDUNILVR, with distinct phases: •Downtrend (September 2024 to March 2025): The stock opened the period around ₹968.85 (All time High) but faced sustained selling pressure, declining steadily to a Swing low near ₹2,113.75 by mid-March. This ~ 28.80% drop was marked by red candlesticks and increasing volume spikes (reaching highs around 2-3 million shares), suggesting distribution or profit-taking amid broader market concerns or weak rural demand in India. This phase aligns with reports of a sluggish consumer environment early in the year. •Uptrend (March to July 2025): A strong rebound began in late March, with the price climbing in a series of higher highs and lows to peak around ₹2,750 by July. Green candlesticks dominated, supported by rising volume during breakouts. This rally (~30.1% from Swing low) likely coincided with Unilever's positive first-half results announced in July, boosting investor confidence in volume recovery. The CEO transition announcement around this time may have added to the optimism. •Correction and Consolidation (July to October 2025): Post-peak, the stock entered a downtrend, dropping to around ₹2,443 by September amid volatility. Volume remained elevated during the decline, with a notable spike possibly tied to GST cut announcements causing temporary sales disruptions. In early October, a minor rebound is evident, with the latest session closing up 0.87% on moderate volume. The price is now consolidating near ₹2,500-₹2,600, forming what appears to be a potential rounding bottom or base-building pattern, as noted in trader discussions. Key levels from the chart: Level TypePrice (₹)Significance Recent High~2750Late Aug-Early Sep 2025 peak; potential resistance if rally resumes Recent Low~2,114March 2025 bottom; major support Current Support2,500Psychological level and recent consolidation base Current Resistance2,560-2,633Near-term overhead from moving averages Moving Averages (EMAs) Current values include: •EMA (20): ~₹2,585.42 (possibly the blue line, acting as resistance). •Other EMAs: ~₹2,538.50 and ~₹2,556.94 . The price is trading just below the shorter-term EMAs, indicating short-term bearish pressure, but above the longer-term ~₹2,500 range, suggesting underlying support. A "death cross" (short-term EMA crossing below long-term) occurred during the July-September decline, but the lines appear to be flattening, hinting at potential stabilization. traders view this setup as bullish for longs, with breakouts above EMAs signaling upside. Volume Analysis Volume bars (in teal and red) show average daily volume around 1-2 million shares, with spikes up to 3-4 million during key turning points: •High volume during the March low (capitulation selling). •Sustained volume in the April-June rally (accumulation). •Elevated levels in September decline (distribution on GST news). Current volume (1.48M) is average, not signaling strong conviction, but a pickup could confirm the recent uptick. RSI (14) The RSI is at 45.04, in neutral territory (30-70 range). Trend: •Dipped below 30 (oversold) in February-March, preceding the rebound. •Peaked above 70 (overbought) in June-July, warning of the subsequent pullback. •Now declining but stabilizing around 40-50, showing loss of upward momentum but no extreme weakness. A move above 50 could signal renewed buying interest. MACD: Current values: MACD line -6.17, signal line -28.99, histogram -22.83. Note: The histogram appears positive ( turning upward), suggesting a discrepancy—likely the histogram is MACD minus signal (+22.82), indicating a bullish crossover. •The MACD was deeply negative during the early 2025 decline. •Crossed positive in the spring rally. •Turned negative again in summer but shows a recent bullish crossover (MACD above signal), with histogram improving. This is a potential buy signal, aligning with trader optimism on momentum plays. Overall Technical Analysis and Outlook HINDUNILVR exhibits a classic recovery pattern after an early-year slump, with the Sep 25 peak marking a cycle high followed by GST-induced correction. The chart suggests consolidation, with bullish hints from the MACD crossover and neutral RSI, but bearish pressure from price below short-term EMAs. Potential chart patterns include a rounding bottom (bullish if it breaks above ₹2,660) or a double top if it fails at ₹2,750. Support at ₹2,480 could hold on demand recovery hopes, while resistance at ₹2,630-₹2,660 may cap upside without volume surge. Fundamentally, the stock benefits from leadership refresh and solid H1 results, but faces near-term headwinds from tax changes. Trader sentiment on X is tilted positive, with calls for longs and breakouts. For long-term investors, it's a quality FMCG play with recovery potential; short-term traders might watch for EMA breakout or MACD confirmation. Always consider broader market risks like inflation or rural demand tren