Analysis techniques – Robusta Coffee Futures (Nov 2025)Robusta Coffee Futures (Nov 2025)ICEEUR_DLY:RCX2025Hung-JKAnalysis techniques – Robusta Coffee Futures (Nov 2025) Date: Oct 06, 2025 | Timeframe: D1 | Contract Code: LRCX25 1. Trend Overview and Price Structure November Robusta coffee surged to USD 4,528/ton (+4.65%), extending its rebound from the 4,020 – 4,305 support zone. The price pattern is shaping a falling wedge, a potential reversal setup if the upper boundary near 4,600 – 4,650 breaks. Medium term, the market is transitioning from a downtrend into a consolidation-recovery phase, targeting 4,926 – 5,646 once resistance breaks. 2. Key Technical Levels Resistance: 4,650 – 4,926 – 5,646 Support: 4,305 – 4,020 – 3,628 3. Detailed Technical Analysis (1) Short-term Trend: The current rally is a corrective move after September’s decline. Holding above 4,305 shows renewed buying strength, supported by a breakout through the descending trendline. (2) Volume: Volume expansion during Oct 4–5 sessions indicates active technical buying and bullish participation. (3) Wave Structure: Price appears to be forming a wave 3 recovery leg. If the move extends, theoretical targets lie around 4,926 – 5,646. (4) Confirmation Signals: A daily close above 4,650 confirms wedge breakout; a break below 4,305 would risk a pullback toward 4,020. 4. Bloomberg Intelligence Strategic View Short Term: Technical rebound supported by tight ICE inventories and speculative buying in Robusta. Medium Term: Heavy rains in Vietnam’s Central Highlands and Brazil’s Minas Gerais may improve 2025/26 output, yet Indonesia’s weak supply continues to underpin prices. Key Risk: A stronger USD or weaker BRL could trigger producer hedging and limit upside momentum. 5. Suggested Technical Strategies Preferred Long Setup: Entry: 4,450 – 4,520 TP: 4,926 – 5,646 SL: 4,305 Probability: 65% Counter-trend Short Setup: Entry: 4,900 – 4,950 TP: 4,305 – 4,020 SL: 5,000 Probability: 40% 6. Corporate Hedging Guidance Exporters: Consider forward sales around 4,900 – 5,000 to secure short-term profits. Roasters/importers: Hedge near 4,400 – 4,500 to mitigate upside exposure in case of a breakout above 4,926.