Analysis techniques – Arabica Coffee Futures (Dec 2025)Coffee C Futures (Dec 2025)ICEUS_DLY:KCZ2025Hung-JKAnalysis techniques – Arabica Coffee Futures (Dec 2025) Date: Oct 06, 2025 | Timeframe: D1 | Contract Code: KCZ25 1. Trend Overview and Price Structure December Arabica coffee rose +2.28% to 388.35 cents/lb, breaking above the 384–385 consolidation zone and confirming a short-term recovery. The medium-term structure remains bullish from the 272.05 low, with a key support area around 350. Sustaining this zone may lead prices toward 420 cents/lb, the highest resistance since May 2025. 2. Key Technical Levels Resistance: 384.6 – 420 – 450 Support: 350 – 316.5 – 272 3. Detailed Technical Analysis (1) Short-term Trend: Momentum strengthened as prices reclaimed the 384–385 area. Holding above 380 reinforces the near-term uptrend. (2) Volume: Volume expansion during the latest rally reflects renewed speculative buying. (3) Wave Structure: Arabica appears to be in wave 3 of a medium-term recovery cycle, targeting 420 – 450. A confirmed breakout above 420 could extend the move into wave 5 toward 450. (4) Confirmation Signals: A daily close above 388–390 would confirm bullish continuation, while a drop below 350 would weaken the broader structure. 4. VNC View Short Term: Supported by low ICE certified stocks and a stronger BRL reducing farmer selling. Medium Term: Brazilian 2025/26 crop remains strong, but rising logistics costs and recovering consumption in the US/EU support price stability. Risk Factors: Currency volatility (BRL/USD) and prolonged La Niña weather conditions in South America may distort supply-demand balance. 5. Suggested Technical Strategies Preferred Long Setup: Entry: 384 – 388 TP: 420 – 450 SL: 350 Probability: 65% Counter-trend Short Setup: Entry: 418 – 420 TP: 370 – 350 SL: 425 Probability: 35% 6. Corporate Hedging Guidance Roasters / Importers: Lock in purchases around 380 – 390 to hedge against potential rally toward 420. Exporters: Delay sales once above 400 and use forward hedges to capture upside if the uptrend extends.