Bitcoin, end of the cycle on October 17/18, 2025?Bitcoin all time history indexINDEX:BTCUSDSwissquoteBitcoin evolves according to cycles marked by “halvings,” events that cut miners’ rewards in half and reduce the available supply. Each halving has historically triggered a bullish phase ending with a peak, followed by a long correction. If our current cycle repeats the length of the previous one, then the peak could be reached on Friday, October 17, or Saturday, October 18. Explanations. Lessons from history Since 2012, three complete cycles have been observed: •Cycle 2012: peak reached 366 days after the halving, on December 4, 2013. •Cycle 2016: peak reached 526 days after the halving, on December 16, 2017. •Cycle 2020: peak reached 546 days after the halving, on November 8, 2021. Projections for the current cycle The last halving took place in April 2024. Applying the two criteria from the previous cycle leads to two very close projections: •546 days after the halving → October 18, 2025 •1,061 days after the November 2021 peak → October 17, 2025 Both independent methods converge toward the same window: mid-October 2025. Toward a convergence of scenarios The strength of this cross-analysis lies in the robustness of the convergence. Three different methods—days post-halving, peak-to-peak interval, and cycle averages—all point to autumn 2025. This suggests a critical period for the end of the bull market linked to the 2024 halving. An important nuance: lengthening cycles One point deserves emphasis. Looking at the days post-halving, the duration tends to increase with each cycle: 366 days (2012), 526 days (2016), 546 days (2020). This progression suggests the next cycle could last even longer. In that case, the peak might not occur on October 17 or 18, 2025, but later—possibly in November 2025. Conclusion The alignment of historical models strengthens the hypothesis of a Bitcoin cycle peak in October 2025, around October 17–18. However, the trend toward longer cycles opens the possibility of a later peak, extending the bull market beyond October 2025. We will revisit this analysis in mid-October. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. 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