Bitcoin — Comprehensive Late-Trend RoadmapBitcoin / US DollarCOINBASE:BTCUSDWaveFibsBitcoin — comprehensive update: late-trend ladder, potential 4→5, and channel targets Thesis BTC is advancing inside a rising Elliott channel from the 2022 low. Late in an impulse, wave-5 often terminates near the channel’s upper line (sometimes with a brief throw-over), while momentum divergences frequently appear as higher highs print with weakening oscillators. That combination frames the next weeks: respect channel boundaries for upside targets and require price confirmation for any reversal. Structure map (what the channel says) Channeling guideline: after wave-4 is identified, draw a trendline 2→4 and run a parallel through 3 to project the likely wave-5 termination zone; many 5s end at, or just beyond, this upper boundary. Throw-over risk: a brief penetration of the upper line by wave-5 can precede a major reversal; treat it as terminal unless acceptance above the channel holds on retest. Levels (prices on the map) Upside decision ladder — current impulse extensions 1.618 → $126,738 (typical wave-3 target; first decision/scale zone) 1.786 → $128,767 (often tags in strong legs) 2.000 → $131,398 (common wave-5 equality/overthrow checkpoint) Acceptance through the full ladder shifts focus to the next confluence. (Use standard Fib extension practice from the last clear base.) Stretch / confluence above 0.618 higher-degree cluster → ~$139,205 (popular profit-taking/reassessment area in crypto trends). Dynamic channel guidance Rising median of the 2022-anchored channel ≈ $150k now; linear projection implies ~$156k–$160k if contacted ~4 weeks later, depending on slope. Median/upper lines often act as magnets/termination rails late in trends. Momentum/diff checklist (confirmation logic) Bearish divergence = price higher high with RSI/MACD lower high → a warning of trend fatigue; treat as context and wait for price triggers (e.g., break of the last higher low). Throwback behavior after upward breakouts is common; a retest that holds often resumes the uptrend. Do not assume failure unless support breaks. Scenarios & exact triggers (including the “possible 4 → another 5” path) A) Wave-3 at 1.618, then a real wave-4, then final wave-5 (classic) Path: Pause/roll at $126,738–$131,398 → corrective wave-4 (shallow to moderate) → renewed push for wave-5 toward $139,205 and potentially the channel upper/median. Triggers: Wave-4 confirmation = loss of the last HL on execution TF (1h/4h) without breaking larger uptrend structure. Wave-5 confirmation = reclaim of broken level + momentum re-acceleration. B) No meaningful 4 yet → direct press to 2.0 and stretch Path: Clean acceptance above $131,398 (2.0) with no fresh divergence → $139,205; if momentum persists, risk of throw-over into the channel’s upper line; then monitor throwback retest. Triggers: Daily/3D closes through $131,398 with strengthening MACD/RSI, then alert at $139,205 for profit-taking and reversal risk management. C) Divergence rejection at the ladder → truncated/short 5 Path: Price prints marginal HH into $126,738–$131,398 while RSI/MACD make LH → rejection → 5-down on 15m/1h → measured pullback toward 23.6–38.2% of the advance; larger reassessment thereafter. Triggers: Bearish divergence plus break of the last HL and failure on retest (confirmation over anticipation). Risk management (mechanical, level-driven) Into $126,738 / $128,767 / $131,398: scale partials or hedge; if fading, hard stops above the spike-high to avoid terminal 5 squeezes. On acceptance → $139,205: trail under prior HLs; expect a throwback and treat it as continuation unless structure fails. On confirmed reversal: first targets = 23.6–38.2% retrace of the leg; deeper moves require fresh evidence. One-screen summary (for the Idea caption) Decision ladder: $126,738 → $128,767 → $131,398. Stretch box: $139,205; beyond that, channel median/upper (~$150k now; $156–160k if tagged weeks later). Bull path: acceptance above the ladder with rising momentum → box/rail; manage throwback. Bear path: divergence + HL break at the ladder → 23.6–38.2% reset. Channeling and throw-over/throwback guidelines support these outcomes