NFL prop bets today [October 6, 2025]

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The Jacksonville Jaguars face off against Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday night.After taking advantage of the Baltimore Ravens injury riddled defense last week, negative regression looms large over the Kansas City Chiefs as they face off against a Jacksonville Jaguars unit who ranks near the top of the board in most key defensive metrics. Expect Patrick Mahomes to struggle to move the ball down the field, especially with his offensive line underwhelming in pass sets.Even though there is only one game being played on Monday night, there are still plenty of prop bets and markets to wager on which you can read a detailed breakdown of them below.Best betting promos and sportsbooks for today’s NFL prop betsFind the best promos and sportsbooks to use for today’s Sunday Night Football prop bets.Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars (8:15pm, EST)Patrick Mahomes Under 247.5 Passing Yards (-114) at FanDuel SportsbookOnce considered the most formidable unit in the league, the Baltimore Ravens injuries to their defense have reared their ugly head and have hurt their ability to play at a competitive level. Their loss of production was on full display last Sunday as Patrick Mahomes had no issue with picking apart their gaps in coverage as he threw for 270 yards and 4 touchdowns while completing 67% of his passes.Unfortunately for Mahomes, negative regression looms large as he faces off against a Jacksonville Jaguars defense who ranks top-3 in Def DVOA and in EPA. Especially if his offensive line continues to struggle to hold their ground in pass sets as his front five ranks below league average in Pass Protection Win Rate. Should Mahomes find himself under relentless pressure, then he will be forced to scramble which drastically lessens the quality of his throws.Isiah Pacheco Under 29.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at BetMGM SportsbookEven in their win against the Ravens, Isiah Pacheco still saw a decrease in his usage rate as Kareem Hunt received a bulk of the carries. Hunt has been the more efficient back between the two through the first four weeks of season as he currently leads Pacheco in Yards Over Expected per Attempt on the ground and in Yards per Reception through the air.In Monday night’s contest against Jacksonville, Pacheco will continue to struggle to break through the trenches as he faces off against a Jaguars front seven who ranks top-10 in Run Defense PFF Grade. With Jacksonville’s defensive line clogging the Chiefs running lanes, the Jags linebackers will have more time to recognize the run and bring down Pacheco at the line of scrimmage.Isiah Pacheco Longest Rush Under 9.5 Yards: (-125) at BetMGM SportsbookTo make matters worse for Pacheco, his offensive line struggles to get a push off the line as the Chiefs rank dead last in Run Block Win Rate. This makes it easier for the Jags to make contact at the line of scrimmage, slowing down Pacheco in the process. The Jags scheme on defense also hurts Pacheco’s ability to generate an explosive play as they anchor their linebackers across the middle at a high rate.Trevor Lawrence Over 213.5 Passing Yards: (-114) at Caesars SportsbookWhile Mahomes thrived last Sunday, Trevor Lawrence struggled to get into a groove as the San Francisco 49ers defense held the Jags quarterback to just 174 yards and 1 touchdown in week four. Even with a revamped group of pass catchers surrounding him, Lawrence has still underwhelmed this season as he ranks below league average in Quarterback EPA per play.Luckily for Lawrence, he will see an increase in the quality of his passing lanes while operating in a clean pocket against the Chiefs as he faces off against a defense who ranks below league average in Def Pass Rush Win Rate and in PFF Grade. For some more exposure, escalator bet Lawrence’s passing yardage prop by placing smaller wagers on his alternate overs at the best available odds.Travis Etienne Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+120) at BetMGM SportsbookAfter trading Tank Bigsby to the Philadelphia Eagles, Travis Etienne has turned into the Jags three down back when in scoring position as he comfortably leads the team in total Red Zone Carries. With the Jags offense expected to get into inside the 20 at a higher rate, Travis Etienne will see an uptick in his number of scoring opportunities which increases his chances of punching one in for six.About the authorKody MalstromKody Malstrom is a professional sports bettor and sports betting journalist with six years of experience covering a vast majority of sports. He covers football, basketball, hockey, baseball, and the UFC in written and video form.Born and raised in Michigan, Kody is a Detroit sports fan who spends all of his Sundays in the fall rooting for the Detroit Lions and Saturdays watching as much College Football as possible. In the winter, he shifts his focus to the Detroit Red Wings and Pistons while simultaneously rooting for his North Carolina Tar Heels.When he is not staring at betting markets, you can find Kody at the beach or snowboarding down a mountain, depending on the time of the year.Commercial content notice: Taking one of the sportsbooks offers featured in this article may result in a payment to talkSPORT. 21+. T&Cs apply. 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