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ethanol prices and may prompt the world's sugar producers to divert more cane crushing toward ethanol production rather than sugar, thus reducing sugar supplies.The U.S.-Iran War Has Hit Cattle. How Much Lower Will Prices Go?Supply Concerns Boost Coffee PricesLooking for the Next Silver Rally? Speculative Bulls Are Turning to Grain Futures.Stop Missing Market Moves: Get the FREE Barchart Brief – your midday dose of stock movers, trending sectors, and actionable trade ideas, delivered right to your inbox. Sign Up Now!On February 12, sugar prices plunged to 5.25-year nearest-futures lows on concern that a global sugar surplus will persist.  On February 11, analysts from sugar trader Czarnikow said they expect a global sugar surplus of 3.4 MMT in the 2026/27 crop year, following an 8.3 MMT surplus in 2025/26.   Also, Green Pool Commodity Specialists said on January 29 that they expect a 2.74 MMT global sugar surplus for 2025/26 and a 156,000 MT surplus for 2026/27.  Meanwhile, StoneX said February 13 that it expects a global sugar surplus of 2.9 MMT in 2025/26.Last Friday, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecast a +1.22 MMT (million metric ton) sugar surplus in 2025-26, below an earlier projection of +1.63 MMT.  That follows a -3.46 MMT deficit in 2024-25.  ISO said the surplus is being driven by increased sugar production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan.  ISO is forecasting a +3.0% y/y rise in global sugar production to 181.3 million MMT in 2025-26. Signs of lower sugar output in Brazil are supportive of sugar prices, after Unica on February 18 reported that sugar production in Brazil's Center-South in the second half of January fell by -36% y/y to only 5,000 MT.  However, cumulative 2025-26 Center-South sugar output through January is up by +0.9% y/y to 40.24 MMT.  Also, the ratio of cane crushed for sugar rose to 50.74% in 2025/26 from 48.14% in 2024/25.Consulting firm Safras & Mercado said on December 23 that Brazil's sugar production in 2026/27 will fall by -3.91% to 41.8 MMT from 43.5 MMT expected in 2025/26.  The firm expects Brazil's sugar exports in 2026/27 to fall by -11% y/y to 30 MMT.The Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) reported today that India's 2025-26 sugar output from Oct 1-Feb 28 was up +12% y/y to 24.75 MMT.  Last Wednesday, the ISMA projected India's 2025/26 sugar production at 29.3 MMT, up 12% y/y, below an earlier projection of 30.95 MMT.  The ISMA also cut its estimate for sugar used for ethanol production in India to 3.4 MMT from a July forecast of 5 MMT, which may allow India to boost its sugar exports.  India is the world's second-largest sugar producer. 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