中国的人工智能末日论者在哪?

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王月眉2026年3月5日去年在上海举行的世界人工智能大会上展示的服务机器人。 Qilai Shen for The New York TimesWhen the A.I. video generation tool Seedance 2.0 debuted recently, with the ability to create impressively realistic clips of just about anything a user could imagine, it prompted two drastically different reactions on opposite sides of the world.最近发布的人工智能视频生成工具Seedance 2.0能够根据用户的想象创造出令人惊艳的逼真视频片段,它在地球两端引发了两种截然不同的反应。In the United States, many in the movie industry responded with fear. After a Seedance-generated video purporting to show a fight scene between Brad Pitt and Tom Cruise spread widely online, Hollywood filmmakers and writers said their jobs were fast becoming obsolete.在美国,电影行业的许多人对此感到恐惧。一段据称是布拉德·皮特和汤姆·克鲁斯打斗场面的Seedance生成视频在网上广泛传播后,好莱坞的电影制作人和编剧们表示,他们的工作正迅速变得过时。But in China, many reacted with pride and excitement. Stocks in short-video companies surged. One of China’s most famous directors, Jia Zhangke, shared a short film that he made using Seedance, in which his real self and an A.I. version discussed moviemaking.但在中国,许多人的反应是自豪和兴奋。短视频公司的股票大涨。中国最著名的导演之一贾樟柯分享了他使用Seedance制作的短片,片中真实的自己与一个人工智能版本的自己讨论电影创作。“I’m not worried about technology replacing movies. From the very beginning, movies have coexisted with new technology,” Mr. Jia wrote on social media. “What really matters is how people use technology.”“我并不担心技术会不会‘取代’电影。电影从诞生之初,就一直在和新技术共处,”贾樟柯在社交媒体上写道。“真正重要的,还是人如何使用技术。”贾樟柯(中)在2024年法国戛纳电影节上。 Antonin Thuillier/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesThe contrasting reactions point to a broader split between China and much of the West on A.I.: Chinese people appear to be much more optimistic about it.这种截然不同的反应揭示了中国与西方大部分国家在人工智能问题上更广泛的分歧:中国人似乎对人工智能更加乐观。People in China are among the most excited in the world about A.I., according to a KPMG survey of 47 countries last year. While 69 percent of people in China said the technology’s benefits outweighed its risks, only 35 percent of Americans agreed. Other polls have shown similar disparities.毕马威咨询去年对47个国家进行的一项调查显示,中国人是对人工智能最兴奋的人群之一。在中国,69%的受访者认为该技术的好处大于风险,而持同样看法的美国人只有35%。其他民调也显示出类似的差距。The question is, why?问题是,为什么会这样?The answer may be related to how the technology has been deployed in each country, as well as how the government and industry leaders have talked about it.答案可能与这项技术在各国的应用方式有关,也与政府和行业领袖如何谈论它有关。In China, A.I. Is Seemingly Everywhere在中国,人工智能似乎无处不在Driverless taxis roam more than a dozen Chinese cities, and service robots putter through hotels and restaurants. Chinese tech companies have rolled out medical chatbots to help users avoid long lines at hospitals. They’ve embedded A.I. assistants throughout popular apps, so users can ask A.I. in their mapping apps to help them decide where to eat, or in their shopping apps to help them choose between pairs of shoes.无人驾驶出租车在中国十多个城市穿行,服务机器人在酒店和餐馆里缓缓穿行。中国科技公司推出了医疗聊天机器人,帮助用户避免在医院排长队。他们还把人工智能助手嵌入各种热门应用中:用户可以在地图应用里询问人工智能该去哪里吃饭,也可以在购物应用中让人工智能帮忙在两双鞋之间做出选择。在中国中部城市芜湖,警方使用机器人协助交通监测。在中国,人工智能似乎无处不在。That’s because Chinese tech companies have focused intensely on real-world applications for A.I. By contrast, many leading American tech companies have been focused on more abstract goals, like developing the most cutting-edge model, or achieving artificial general intelligence.这是因为中国科技公司高度专注于人工智能的实际应用。相比之下,许多领先的美国科技公司一直专注于更抽象的目标,比如开发最前沿的模型,或实现通用人工智能。In addition, most of China’s leading A.I. models are free to use, unlike in the United States, where users have to pay for chatbots like ChatGPT to access all their features. (In fact, Chinese companies have been giving away money and luxury cars to entice people to download their apps.)此外,中国大多数领先的人工智能模型都是免费的,不像在美国,用户必须为ChatGPT等聊天机器人付费才能使用全部功能。(事实上,一些中国公司甚至通过赠送现金和豪车来吸引用户下载他们的应用程序。)As a result, Chinese consumers are feeling the benefits of A.I., said Bai Guo, a professor who studies the digital economy at China Europe International Business School in Shanghai.因此,中国消费者已经开始感受到人工智能带来的好处,上海的中欧国际工商学院研究数字经济的白果教授说。“A lot of things can already be helped by A.I., and people find that interesting, that’s useful, and so there are quite a lot of positive and active feelings toward it,” Professor Bai said. Potential dangers, such as unemployment or increased inequality, still feel remote.“很多事情已经可以由人工智能来帮助完成,人们觉得这很有意思,也很有用,所以对它抱有相当多积极、主动的情绪,”白教授说。至于潜在的风险,比如失业或不平等加剧,目前仍然让人感觉比较遥远。Beijing Has Been a Big Champion中国政府一直是人工智能的积极推动者The focus on A.I. applications is a product of China’s hypercompetitive internet economy. Leading companies like Alibaba, ByteDance and the food delivery giant Meituan are locked in a perpetual battle for users, and A.I. is the latest tool.对人工智能应用的关注是中国高度竞争的互联网经济的产物。阿里巴巴、字节跳动和外卖巨头美团等领先企业陷入了一场争夺用户的持久战,而人工智能是最新的竞争工具。The Chinese government has also encouraged this approach. Xi Jinping has said that China’s A.I. industry should “prioritize practical application.” Officials say that A.I. could help solve China’s thorniest problems, such as inequalities in health care, or an aging work force.中国政府也鼓励这种做法。习近平曾表示,中国的人工智能产业应“全面推进赋能应用”。官员们表示,人工智能可以帮助解决中国一些最棘手的问题,如医疗资源不均衡,或劳动力老龄化。阿里巴巴集团在杭州的总部。阿里巴巴开发了广泛使用的开源人工智能系统。In August, the government laid out a plan, called A.I.+, for A.I. to penetrate more than 70 percent of Chinese society by 2027, and 90 percent by 2030. The plan said A.I. will “promote a revolutionary leap in productive ability” and “create higher-quality, beautiful lives.”去年8月,政府提出了一项名为“人工智能+”的计划,目标是到2027年让人工智能应用普及率达到70%以上,到2030年达到90%。该计划称,人工智能将“推动生产力整体跃升”,并“打造更有品质的美好生活”。Because Chinese officials are promoting A.I. as an economic engine, they may also be silencing those who are more pessimistic about it. Crashes involving autonomous driving have attracted widespread attention online, only for posts to be censored. State media outlets have compared concerns about job loss for taxi drivers to the Luddite movement.由于中国官员将人工智能作为经济引擎来推广,他们可能也在压制那些对此更为悲观的声音。与自动驾驶有关的事故在网上曾引发广泛关注,但相关帖子随后遭删除。官方媒体还把出租车司机对失业的担忧与历史上的卢德运动相提并论。China also does not permit independent labor unions, which have been some of the most vocal critics of A.I. in the West.中国也不允许独立的工会存在,而在西方,工会一直是人工智能最直言不讳的批评者之一。The signaling by the state that A.I. is strictly managed has, for some Chinese, bolstered their confidence in the technology. In interviews, some parents have said that they are comfortable letting their children use A.I. toys or educational tools because they believe the government would not permit the models to produce anything harmful.国家不断释放出人工智能受到严格管理的信号,这也在一定程度上增强了一些中国人对这项技术的信心。在采访中,一些家长表示,他们愿意让孩子使用人工智能玩具或教育工具,因为他们相信政府不会允许这些模型产生任何有害内容。National Pride and Faith in Technology民族自豪感与对技术的信念Many Chinese scholars, investors and entrepreneurs cited a more abstract reason for the optimism: Simply put, China has modernized so quickly in recent decades that many Chinese are used to groundbreaking change. And technology has been key to that change.许多中国学者、投资者和企业家提出了一个更为抽象的原因来解释这种乐观情绪:简单来说,中国在过去几十年里现代化速度极快,许多中国人已经习惯了颠覆性的变革。而技术一直是这种变革的关键。去年在武汉的一次演示中,对一辆无人驾驶电动小巴进行监控。Afra Wang, a technology writer from China, wrote in a recent newsletter about her grandmother, who once walked five hours to buy a clock so that her children could get to school on time. “Today her Xiaomi phone has given her an online shopping addiction, and delivery drones fly above her apartment,” Ms. Wang wrote. “A.I. simply looks like the next turn of a wheel that has only ever spun forward.”中国科技作者阿芙拉·王(音)最近在一篇通讯中写到了她的祖母。当年祖母曾经为了买闹钟走了五个小时路,就为了让孩子们能够按时上学。“而今天,她的小米手机让她沉迷于网购,送货无人机在她的公寓上空飞行,”王女士写道。“人工智能看起来不过是那只一直向前滚动的车轮的下一次转动。”For many Chinese, their country’s ability to compete with the United States on A.I. is a source of great pride, further proof of how far China has come. After Seedance 2.0 was released, the hashtag “Seedance 2.0 has been praised to the skies overseas” was a top trend on Chinese social media.对许多中国人来说,中国能够在人工智能领域与美国竞争是一种巨大的自豪感,也是中国取得巨大进步的又一证明。Seedance 2.0发布后,“Seedance 2.0在海外出圈”的话题在中国社交媒体上迅速登上热搜。“Technology still firmly occupies a particular place in the Chinese imagination: It is still seen as a channel for upward mobility,” Ms. Wang wrote.“在当代中国人的想象中,技术仍然牢固地占据着一个特殊的位置:它仍被视为向上流动的渠道,”王女士写道。Concerns About A.I. Are Growing对人工智能的担忧正在增加Still, there are signs of increased caution, by both the government and the general public.然而,无论是政府还是普通公众,都已表现出更为谨慎的迹象。Some Chinese content creators have expressed unease about Seedance 2.0’s prowess.一些中国内容创作者对Seedance 2.0的强大能力表示不安。Feng Ji, the founder of a leading Chinese video game developer, wrote online that intellectual property laws would face “unprecedented challenges.” Disney and the Motion Picture Association, which represents major Hollywood studios, have already accused ByteDance, the Chinese company that made Seedance, of copyright infringement. (Not long after the release, ByteDance announced that it would temporarily restrict the creation of videos featuring real people.)一家中国知名游戏开发公司的创始人冯骥在网上写道,知识产权法将面临“空前冲击”。迪士尼以及代表好莱坞主要电影公司的美国电影协会已经指控开发Seedance的中国公司字节跳动侵犯版权。(该工具发布不久后,字节跳动宣布将暂时限制生成包含真人形象的视频。)在上海一个人工智能大会上的面部识别展示。Users have also raised concerns about how easily the government’s restrictions can be bypassed. A Chinese feminist group recently highlighted tutorials for making sexually explicit deepfakes that circulate openly on Chinese social media. Attempts to report the images were unsuccessful, the group said.用户还提出担忧,认为政府的监管很容易规避。一个中国女权团体最近指出,在中国社交媒体上公开流传着制作色情深度伪造的教程。该团体表示,他们尝试举报这些图片,但没有成功。The Chinese government has also begun more directly addressing the technology’s potential for disrupting jobs, mental health or the Communist Party’s grip on power.中国政府也开始更加直接地讨论这项技术可能对就业、心理健康以及共产党执政稳定带来的潜在影响。The state news agency reported in January that the government would soon release an action plan to address A.I.’s effect on employment, as automation threatens to displace workers in some industries.官方通讯社今年1月报道称,政府很快将发布一项行动计划,以应对人工智能对就业的影响,因为自动化可能取代某些行业的工人。The government has also ordered A.I. companies to impose a wide range of guardrails, from blocking politically sensitive content to preventing users from becoming dependent on their A.I. companions.政府还要求人工智能公司设置广泛的安全防护措施,包括屏蔽政治敏感内容,以及防止用户对人工智能伴侣产生依赖。For all of its potential, China must not let A.I. “spiral out of control,” Mr. Xi warned during a recent meeting of the leaders of the Communist Party.中国领导人近日在共产党领导人会议上警告称,尽管人工智能潜力巨大,但中国绝不能让其“失控”。Siyi Zhao对本文有研究贡献。王月眉(Vivian Wang)是《纽约时报》驻华记者,常驻北京,撰写关于中国的崛起及雄心如何塑造普通人日常生活的报道。翻译:纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。