Key HighlightsFourth quarter 2025 revenue dropped 17.6% annually to $1.87 million, falling short of the $2.33 million analyst consensusMizuho’s Vijay Rakesh lowered his price target to $43 from $50 while keeping a Buy rating, seeing 142% potential upsideThe company reached 99.9% two-qubit gate fidelity at 28 nanoseconds, potentially outpacing rivals by 3–5xCash reserves stand at approximately $590 million, with an $8.4 million contract from India’s Centre for Development of Advanced ComputingThe roadmap includes exceeding 150 physical qubits by December 2026 and surpassing 1,000 by late 2027Rigetti Computing’s fourth quarter financial performance disappointed investors, yet the company’s technological achievements paint a more optimistic picture. Let’s break down the situation.Rigetti Computing, Inc., RGTIThe company reported Q4 2025 revenue of $1.87 million, representing a 17.6% decline compared to the prior year period and missing analyst expectations of $2.33 million. The previous quarter saw revenue of $2.3 million, highlighting a notable sequential decline.Gross profit margins also contracted, sliding to 35% from the 44% recorded in Q4 2024. Management pointed to contract mix as the primary factor behind this margin compression.Rigetti Computing, $RGTI, Q4-25.Still early, heavy investment phase. Adj. EPS: -$0.03 Revenue: $1.87M Net Loss: $18.2MQuantum progress continues, but operating loss reached $22.60M.How long until commercialization scales? pic.twitter.com/8zcWmjubUL— EarningsTime (@Earnings_Time) March 4, 2026Operating losses expanded to $22.6 million during the quarter versus $18.5 million in the year-ago period. Operating expenses climbed to $23.2 million from $19.5 million, primarily reflecting increased investment in research and development.The company recorded a per-share loss of $0.03, matching Wall Street’s consensus forecast.In response, Mizuho’s Vijay Rakesh reduced his price objective from $50 to $43 — representing a 14% reduction. However, he maintained his Buy recommendation.The $43 target price suggests approximately 142% potential upside from present trading levels. Rakesh’s valuation methodology applies roughly 9x to his projected revenue 30 months forward, based on Rigetti capturing a 10% share of the quantum computing sector.First Quarter Guidance and Contract PipelineRakesh projects Q1 2026 revenue reaching $3 million — representing a 62% sequential increase and 106% growth year-over-year. This anticipated expansion is primarily driven by Rigetti’s $5.7 million Novera quantum processor agreement.Additionally, the company plans to ship its inaugural Cepheus-1 108-qubit system to India’s Centre for Development of Advanced Computing during the latter half of 2026, representing an $8.4 million engagement.Rigetti’s balance sheet shows approximately $590 million in cash, providing sufficient capital to pursue its development timeline without near-term funding concerns.Quantum Hardware AdvancementsOn the technology front, Rigetti demonstrated 99.9% two-qubit gate fidelity utilizing an innovative adiabatic CZ technique at 28 nanoseconds. According to the company, this performance potentially exceeds competing methodologies by a factor of 3 to 5.The company has successfully deployed both an 84-qubit monolithic chip architecture and a 36-qubit chiplet-based configuration to cloud platforms.Rigetti manages Fab One, characterized as the quantum computing industry’s first purpose-built integrated device fabrication center.Strategic collaborations include working with Riverlane on error correction technologies and Nvidia to connect quantum processors with GPUs and CPUs through NVLink, leveraging CUDA-Q software for hybrid computing environments.The company’s technical roadmap calls for exceeding 150 physical qubits by December 2026 and surpassing 1,000 qubits by year-end 2027. Management estimates quantum advantage is approximately three years from realization.According to TipRanks, RGTI stock carries a Moderate Buy consensus rating derived from five Buy recommendations and two Hold recommendations. The analyst average price target stands at $37.60, suggesting approximately 111.7% upside potential from current trading prices.Over the trailing twelve months, RGTI stock has appreciated more than 117%.The post Rigetti Computing (RGTI) Stock: Revenue Miss Doesn’t Shake Analyst’s 142% Upside Forecast appeared first on Blockonomi.