An atomic tug of war - The HinduUpdated - March 05, 2026 01:30 pm ISTFRAGILE DEAL: In this January 2016 photo, former U.S. President Barack Obama is presented a copy of the Iran nuclear deal legislation by then House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, in Baltimore. While Iran had held multiple talks with Joe Biden in 2021 to strike a new deal, after President Trump withdrew the U.S. from it in 2018, the efforts remained inconclusive. | Photo Credit: APAfter the 12-day war between Israel and Iran in June 2025, which also saw American B2 bombers attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities and Iranian missiles targeting the American military base in Qatar, Israel declared a ‘historic victory’. U.S. President Donald Trump claimed that American strikes had “obliterated” the Iranian nuclear facilities. The Iranians kept tactical silence about the impact of the strikes on their nuclear plans, including the Fordow facility, which is built deep underground, beneath a mountain.However, early assessments by the U.S. intelligence community, which were leaked to American media, claimed that Iran’s nuclear programme had not been destroyed by U.S. strikes, but set back by “a few months”. Even if the nuclear facilities were destroyed, there is no certainty that Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium and all advanced centrifuges have been destroyed. There were reports, based on European intelligence assessments, that Iran had dispersed its enriched uranium well before the Israeli-American strikes. According to Rafael Mariano Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN’s nuclear watchdog, Iran has the industrial and technological capacity to resume enriching uranium in a few months. This leaves the Iranian nuclear programme unresolved, at least from an Israeli point of viewAfter Mr. Trump, in his first term, unilaterally withdrew the U.S. from the 2015 nuclear deal, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action ( JCPOA), Iran had maintained that it would not hold direct talks with the U.S. There were multiple rounds of indirect talks in Vienna after Joe Biden became President in 2021, but those efforts were inconclusive. Iran, in this period, substantially accelerated its nuclear programme. In 2024, Iran came under increasing pressure — its so-called axis of resistance was humbled by Israel, it lost an ally in Syria when the regime of President Bashar al-Assad fell, and its economy was in serious trouble.This article is from The Hindu e-book. Iran: Revolution in retreatAs the heat on Iran rose, Mr. Trump offered dialogue. “We can’t let Iran have a nuclear bomb,” he said in April. Faced with the threat of war in a moment of weakness, Iran agreed to engage the Americans diplomatically. However, Israel struck Iran on June 12, when Iran was technically in talks with the U.S. The attack has set back the diplomatic efforts. And Iran’s nuclear programme remains one of the most dangerous disputes in West Asia as tensions between Iran and Israel are heating up again.Iran, a signatory of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), ceased to cooperate with the IAEA after the 1979 revolution that brought down the Shah’s monarchy and led to the establishment of the Islamic Republic.Ever since, the Republic, which turned away from the U.S., its former ally, and adopted a revolutionary foreign policy, faced allegations that it has been pursuing a clandestine nuclear programme. In 2022, the IAEA launched an investigation into Iran’s alleged nuclear activities. In November 2011, the agency reported that Iran appeared to have worked on designing an atom bomb. Iran has always maintained that its nuclear programme was for peaceful purposes. However, its critics pointed to its stockpile of highly enriched uranium as evidence of the country’s clandestine designs.Iran’s uranium enrichment story, however, is a long, complex one.In natural settings, U-235, the uranium isotope that can sustain nuclear fission chain reactions, makes up around 0.7% of uranium. The rest is U-238. Before its use in nuclear settings, uranium is enriched to increase the concentration of U-235. Both low-enriched uranium (LEU) and high- assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) are enriched up to 20% for use in different kinds of nuclear reactors. Highly enriched uranium (HEU) refers to enrichment beyond 20%. Weapons-grade uranium is typically 90% or more.Centrifuges are the world’s enrichment technology of choice. These containers spin their contents at several thousand revolutions per minute. Because U-238 is slightly denser than U-235, the centrifugal force pushes it more towards the periphery. The feed is uranium hexafluoride (UF6) gas. Enrichment facilities have hundreds or thousands of centrifuges operating in cascades, with each cascade accepting as its feed the output of the previous cascade. At each step, more-enriched UF6 is passed to the next while the rest, called tails, is recycled or processed for long-term storage. Each centrifuge’s enrichment service is measured in separative work units (SWUs). Depending on the centrifuge design, producing 1 kg of weapons-grade uranium from natural uranium may need around 250 SWUs.In 2006, Iran enriched uranium to about 3.5% using 164 IR-1 centrifuges, each of which delivers around 0.8 SWU/year. In 2010, the IAEA confirmed that Iran had enriched uranium to 19.75% using IR-1 centrifuges at the Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plant and in 2012 at the Fordow plant. By 2013, the country had a stockpile of about 7.6 tonnes of 3.5% LEU and 0.2 tonnes of 19.75% LEU gas.HIGH POTENTIAL: An Iranian security official, in protective clothing, walks inside the Isfahan nuclear facility. According to some estimates, Iran has enough 60% enriched uranium for five-to-eight nuclear warheads. | Photo Credit: APTerms of the original dealThe 2015 Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA), between Tehran, the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, and the European Union, provided a short-lived solution to the nuclear crisis. The deal promised to remove international sanctions on Iran in return for the country removing most of its centrifuges, limiting enrichment to 3.67%, and capping its LEU stockpile at 300 kg, among other measures. Iran was fully compliant with the terms when Mr. Trump pulled the U.S. out of it in May 2018 and reimposed sanctions on Tehran. Iran has since accelerated its nuclear programme, breaching the agreement, which saw the country enriching uranium to 60% at its plants.This is crucial. If 126 SWUs are required to enrich uranium from 0.7% such that it yields 1 kg of 60% HEU plus 0.3% tails, only 2.2 SWUs are required to enrich 60% HEU to 1 kg of 90% weapons-grade level plus 20% tails (which is higher at higher enrichment). In other words, 60% HEU will have completed more than 90% of the work required to produce weapons- grade uranium. According to some estimates, Iran has around 70 kg of 60% HEU, sufficient for five to eight nuclear warheads.While the number of SWUs decreases with more enrichment, the energy cost skyrockets. But Iran’s commitment suggests the centrifuges will not want for power.Iran Watch has estimated that all centrifuges “presently installed in production mode” in Iran could produce 168-269 kg of 60% high-enriched uranium in “up to two weeks” (assuming 1% tails and 54% feed enrichment). The time to produce enough U-235 for one warhead may thus have dropped from around a year during the JCPOA to a few weeks today.The IAEA suggests a “significant quantity” of 25 kg per warhead with a blast yield of 20 kilotonnes (to compare, Hiroshima was devastated by a yield of 13-16 kilotonnes). Newer designs could have the same yield with lighter cores. Iran may also assemble more weapons of lower yield.Iran’s centrifuges also raise questions about how quickly it can assemble a bomb. Post-enrichment, engineers must convert the uranium in UF6 to metallic form and machine it into the bomb’s core. Second, they need to develop explosives, detonators, arming and firing systems, neutron initiators, explosive lenses, and launch and re-entry vehicles. And they need to conduct tests. The second set can be done in parallel with enrichment, however. According to data from the IAEA and the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence, among others, Iran ran a programme in 1999-2003 during which it also focused on these activities.ALSO WATCH Watch: Is Israel winning the war in Gaza?Ramiffications of talks failureHarvard University Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs scholar Hui Zhang wrote before the June war that if Iran’s steps towards its first nuclear weapon are like China’s in 1964, Iran would need “probably less than three weeks” between gaseous weapons-grade uranium and a bomb.Thus, Iran might have been in a position to develop a deployable warhead in a matter of months if it decided to do so. The U.S.-Israeli strikes clearly set back the programme. However, there is no evidence to suggest that the strikes had destroyed the nuclear programme.As of now, there is no evidence to suggest Iran has decided to make a bomb. However, Iran has suspended cooperation with the IAEA post Israeli strikes. So the Iranian programme has effectively gone dark. There were also reports that Iran has started construction and repair works at Fordow. Besides, the European decision to trigger snapback sanctions on Iran — sanctions that were lifted as part of the 2025 deal — has further enhanced tensions between the Islamic Republic and the West. For Israel, the 12-day war did not destroy the Iranian regime. Nor did it tear out the Iranian nuclear programme — its declared goal. Beneath its rhetoric of victory, Israel, which is now asking the international community to stop Iran from getting a nuclear bomb, knows this all too well. It will only grow more paranoid, closely monitoring Iran’s every move, while Tehran replenishes its arsenal, readying itself to fight another day. The war is far from over.Six months of Israel-Hamas war: revisiting 10 key moments in picturesAt dawn on October 7, at the end of the Jewish holiday of Sukkot, hundreds of Hamas fighters infiltrate Israel from Gaza by land, sea and air. They kill civilians in the streets, in their homes and at a desert music festival, and attack troops in army bases. They bring around 250 hostages back to Gaza, some of them now dead. Israel vows to destroy Hamas and begins bombing Gaza.On October 13, Israel calls on civilians in northern Gaza to move south within 24 hours, declaring the north, which includes Gaza City, a war zone. Hundreds of thousands of Palestinians flee to the south of the Gaza Strip as entire districts in the north are razed to the ground.On October 27, Israeli tanks roll into Gaza at the start of a ground offensive. The troops fight their way towards Gaza City.On November 15, Israeli troops launch a night-time raid on Al-Shifa hospital, Gaza’s biggest medical facility where bodies had been piling up after food, fuel and anaesthetics ran out. The raid causes an international outcry. Israel claims Hamas is running a command centre below the hospital, which the armed group denies.This satellite image provided by Maxar Technologies shows an overview Al Shifa hospital and surroundings in Gaza City on April 1, 2024. In March, Israel again targets the hospital in an intensive two-week operation that leaves hundreds dead and the complex in ruins.On November 24, a week-long truce between Israel and Hamas negotiated in talks mediated by Qatar goes into effect. Hamas releases 80 Israeli hostages over seven days in return for 240 Palestinians held in Israeli prisons. Twenty-five other hostages, mainly Thai farm workers, are released outside of the deal. In this photo provided by the Israeli Army, Emily Hand, a released hostage, reunites with her father on November 26, 2023, in Israel.As part of week-long truce, Israel allows more aid into Gaza during the pause but the humanitarian situation remains dire. When the war resumes, Israel expands its actions into southern Gaza. Seen here are Palestinian children running as they flee from Israeli bombardment in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip on November 6, 2023.On January 12, the US and Britain launch air strikes on targets in rebel-held Yemen after weeks of attacks on Red Sea shipping by the Iran-backed Houthis acting in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza. The strikes add to fears of a regional war.In an interim ruling on January 26 in a case brought by South Africa, the International Court of Justice finds it “plausible” that Israel’s acts could amount to “genocide”. The world’s top court orders Israel to do “everything” to prevent any acts of genocide in Gaza but stops short of ordering a halt to the war.On February 29, Israeli forces open fire on desperate residents of northern Gaza who rush towards a convoy of food aid trucks, saying they believed they “posed a threat”. Gaza’s health ministry says 115 people were shot dead and hundreds wounded in what it calls a “massacre”.At dawn on October 7, at the end of the Jewish holiday of Sukkot, hundreds of Hamas fighters infiltrate Israel from Gaza by land, sea and air. They kill civilians in the streets, in their homes and at a desert music festival, and attack troops in army bases. They bring around 250 hostages back to Gaza, some of them now dead. Israel vows to destroy Hamas and begins bombing Gaza.Humanitarian aid is airdropped to Palestinians over Gaza City, Gaza Strip on March 25, 2024.The US, Jordan and other countries begin airdropping food into Gaza. On March 15, the first food shipment along a new maritime corridor arrives in Gaza.On April 2, seven aid workers from the US charity World Central Kitchen are killed in an Israeli strike when leaving a warehouse in central Gaza where they had just unloaded a portion of food aid from a ship. The dead are Australian, British, Palestinian, Polish and US-Canadian.1/3",""], responsive:{ 0:{ loop:false, autoplay:false, nav: true, dots:false, touchDrag:true, mouseDrag:true, items:1 } }});});]]>Published - March 05, 2026 01:11 pm ISTSign in to unlock member-only benefits!Access 10 free stories every monthSave stories to read laterAccess to comment on every storySign-up/manage your newsletter subscriptions with a single clickGet notified by email for early access to discounts & offers on our products${ ind + 1 } ${ device }Last active - ${ la }