Bitcoin between relief and continuationBitcoinFX:BTCUSDMichael_Stark_Exness4 March was a decent up day for bitcoin, gaining a bit more than 5% overall to close above $72,000, as selling appearing to unwind somewhat and after significant institutional inflows earlier this week. At risk of stating the obvious the ongoing Gulf War is overshadowing most other factors, but don't forget about the NFP tomorrow (6 March). Instinctively, one would expect a major international conflict to drive flight to safety and losses for bitcoin, but this hasn't clearly happened since last weekend. The price remains significantly above 6 February's intraday lows below $60,000 and I think the probability of a further sharp drop probably decreases as the war continues in its current form barring of course some massive further escalation. Against the backdrop of significant retail selling early last month, March so far has seen overall large inflows to ETFs of bitcoin. The American Digital Asset Market Clarity Act has been stalled for some time but recent rumours about possible progress might be understated. Buying volume for CFDs and open interest for some futures on bitcoin has increased in recent days although actual volume for futures has declined slightly. In general, I don't think it's at all clear whether this is a limited bounce of a few days or less or the beginning of a possible short to medium-term uptrend. The 38.2% weekly Fibonacci retracement is a very obvious possible resistance in the medium term but the price would still have to break above the 50 and 100 SMAs plus the 50% Fibo to get there. The previous pattern for much of February to early this month looked a bit like a symmetrical triangle which has now been broken but the borders weren't at all precise. A clear break to new lows below the 61.8% Fibo and $60,000 would probably need a big shift in volume and/or major fundamental developments. I'm watching tomorrow's NFP closely to see whether last month's positive surprise might be repeated. If so, the bounce might be over almost as soon as it started, but if not there might be more scope for gains depending on news of the war and overall sentiment and volume. This is my personal opinion, not the opinion of Exness. This is not a recommendation to trade.