AARON KROLIK2026年3月5日中国国家主席习近平周三出席中国人民政治协商会议全国委员会第十四届委员会第一次会议开幕式。 Florence Lo/ReutersEvery March, China’s leaders gather in Beijing’s Great Hall of the People to announce how much the world’s second-largest economy is expected to grow that year.每年3月，中国领导人都会齐聚北京的人民大会堂，宣布全球第二大经济体当年的预期增长目标。It doesn’t change much from year to year.这一目标每年变化不大。On Thursday, the target for 2026 was set at between 4.5 percent and 5 percent. It was the first time in more than three decades that the benchmark was placed below the 5 percent mark, an acknowledgment that China is on a slower growth path.周四，2026年的增长目标被设定在4.5%至5%之间。这是30多年来该基准首次低于5%的门槛，表明中国已进入增速放缓轨道。The announcement came at the start of the National People’s Congress, the meeting of China’s Communist Party controlled legislature, when leaders unveil the government’s main economic and policy priorities for the year.该目标在全国人民代表大会开幕时宣布——在这一由中国共产党领导的立法机构会议上，领导人将公布政府全年主要经济与政策重点。Speculation over whether the target would be below 5 percent, where it has been for the past three years, was a parlor game among China watchers.过去三年，增长目标一直维持在5%，对于今年该目标是否会跌破5%的猜测，已成为中国问题观察人士的热门话题。The unveiling of the growth target is followed closely by financial markets because it lays out the expectations of the country’s officials, including the China’s leader, Xi Jinping. In a political system heavily directed from top levels, the number can offer clues about plans for economic policymaking.该增长目标的公布备受金融市场关注，因为它体现了包括国家主席习近平在内的中国官方预期。在高度自上而下的中国政治体制中，这一数字能为经济政策计划提供线索。In recent years, China has endured downward pressures in its domestic economy, such as chronic price deflation, high youth unemployment and lagging consumer confidence. A trade war with President Trump, currently in an uneasy truce, has caused China to redirect its considerable exports, pressuring businesses and causing factories to scramble for new markets.近年来，中国国内经济持续承受下行压力，面临长期通缩、青年失业率高企、消费信心疲软等问题。与特朗普政府的贸易战虽目前处于不稳定的休战状态，仍迫使中国调整庞大出口结构，给企业带来压力，迫使工厂纷纷寻找新市场。But those exports, which produced a record trade surplus of $1.19 trillion in 2025, remain a powerful economic driver. The government reported in January that growth last year was 5 percent, exactly the same as the previous year.不过，出口仍是强劲的经济引擎——2025年，中国实现1.19万亿美元的创纪录贸易顺差。今年1月，政府公布去年经济增长为5%，与前年完全持平。中国经济实力的很大一部分源于制造业，建造了庞大的电动汽车工厂、工业园区和数据中心。Not everyone accepts the official numbers at face value. Some experts say that the economy’s actual growth may be half of what official statistics indicate. Rhodium Group, a New York-based research firm specializing in China, estimated that the Chinese economy grew less than 3 percent last year.并非所有人都会采信官方数据。部分专家认为，中国经济实际增速可能仅为官方数据的一半。纽约专注中国研究的荣鼎集团估算，去年中国经济增速不足3%。In recent months, many of China’s provinces and major cities released their own 2026 growth targets that were lower than those for last year. That fueled speculation from economists that the national target might fall below 5 percent this year for the first time since 1991, according to an analysis by Macquarie Group, an investment bank. (Officials did not release a growth target in 2020 because of the Covid-19 pandemic.)近几个月，中国多个省份及主要城市公布的2026年增长目标均低于去年。投行麦格理集团分析指出，这引发经济学家猜测，中国的全国目标今年可能自1991年以来首次跌破5%（2020年因新冠疫情，官方未公布增长目标）。For years after the country opened up to foreign investors and businesses, China grew rapidly. As it has expanded, becoming now the world’s second largest economy, the growth has slowed as it became harder to be more productive.自对外开放吸引外资以来，中国经济多年保持高速增长。随着经济体量扩大、成为全球第二大经济体，提升生产率的难度增加，增长速度逐步放缓。“The more you have caught up in terms of productivity, the less straightforward it is to keep powering ahead,” said Louis Kuijs, chief economist for Asia-Pacific at S&P Global Ratings.标普全球评级亚太区首席经济学家路易斯·奎伊斯表示：“生产率提升得越充分，高增速实现起来就越复杂。”Much of China’s economic strength comes from manufacturing. The country has built vast industrial parks, electric-vehicle plants and data centers, often financed by cheap loans from its state-owned banks. China’s factories produce much of the world’s electric vehicles, solar panels and lithium batteries. Last year, the Chinese carmaker BYD overtook Tesla as the world’s largest electric vehicle producer.中国经济的强劲很大程度上源于制造业。国家建设了庞大的工业园区、电动汽车工厂与数据中心，资金多来自国有银行的低成本贷款。中国工厂生产了全球大部分电动汽车、太阳能板与锂电池。去年，中国车企比亚迪超越特斯拉，成为全球最大电动汽车生产商。But relying too much on manufacturing has created problems for Beijing. Excess factory capacity and fierce competition have driven down prices in a cycle known as “involution,” crushing profit margins across industries. Companies produce more, but earn less.但过度依赖制造业也给北京带来问题。产能过剩、激烈竞争导致价格持续下跌，形成“内卷”循环，全行业利润率被挤压——企业生产更多，却赚得更少。Improving the economic outlook requires stronger domestic spending along with a shift toward what the government calls “high-quality growth” in advanced sectors like artificial intelligence.改善经济前景需要提振国内消费，并向人工智能等高端领域转型，实现政府所称的“高质量发展”。Economists and outside organizations like the International Monetary Fund have long argued that China should adopt policies to encourage more consumer spending.经济学家及国际货币基金组织等外部机构长期以来一直主张，中国应出台政策鼓励更多消费。Those calls grew louder in the past few years after a severe slump in the housing market ate into household wealth, and stagnant wage growth left consumers even more wary of spending. The lack of a robust social safety net also feeds into the heavy savings rate in China as households worry about how they will cover future medical bills and expenses in retirement.过去几年，房地产市场严重下滑侵蚀家庭财富，工资增长停滞让消费者更加不愿花钱，呼吁提振消费的声音愈发强烈。中国社会保障体系不够完善，也推高了居民储蓄率——家庭担心未来医疗与养老支出。Boosting consumption, according to Mr. Kuijs, requires structural changes, including expanding access to public services such as education and health care, particularly for migrant workers in cities.奎伊斯认为，提振消费需要结构性改革，包括扩大教育、医疗等公共服务覆盖面，尤其是面向城市农民工群体。To jump-start that spending, the government has tried offering subsidies for consumer goods, including rebates on appliances and electric vehicles. Officials have also raised pensions and introduced child care subsidies to ease the financial burden on families.为刺激消费，政府已尝试推出消费品补贴，包括家电与电动汽车的折扣。官员还提高了养老金，并推出育儿补贴以减轻家庭经济负担。Those measures, however, have not been enough to make a significant difference and don’t solve the underlying issues. Wage growth has lagged across much of the economy, limiting how much households can spend, said Alicia García-Herrero, chief economist for Asia-Pacific at Natixis. Without stronger income growth, policies to boost spending are unlikely to have much effect.但法国外贸银行亚太区首席经济学家艾丽西亚·加西亚-埃雷罗表示，这些措施效果有限，未能解决根本问题。大部分经济领域工资增长乏力，限制了家庭消费能力。没有更强的收入增长，刺激消费的政策难有实效。“How can you consume if you don’t earn any money?” she said.“不赚钱，怎么消费？”她问道。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。获取更多RSS：https://feedx.net https://feedx.site