VIVIAN NEREIM2026年3月4日周二，阿联酋一工业区发生爆炸。伊朗向沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋、卡塔尔、巴林、科威特和阿曼发射了逾千导弹和无人机。 Fadel Senna/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesFor years, the Persian Gulf countries had worried about the prospect of an out-of-control war with Iran, which would bring missiles and drones to their gleaming cities, trapping tourists and sending foreign executives fleeing.多年来，波斯湾国家一直担忧与伊朗爆发一场失控的战争，届时导弹和无人机将袭击他们光鲜靓丽的城市，困住游客，逼走外国高管。The fear of conflict is one reason they have cultivated such close ties with the United States. They have built American military bases and spent tens of billions of dollars on American weapons.对冲突的恐惧是它们与美国建立紧密关系的原因之一。它们允许美国建立军事基地，并斥资数百亿美元购买美国武器。They had hoped to buy protection from Iran and its regional proxies.它们本希望以此买到保护，免受伊朗及其地区代理人的威胁。But the United States and Israel have launched a massive assault that has rapidly spiraled into a nightmare scenario for Gulf leaders. In retaliation, Iran has fired more than a thousand missiles and drones at Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman. The strikes have killed at least seven people in those countries, according to official reports tallied by The New York Times.但美国和以色列发动的大规模袭击迅速演变为海湾国家领导人的噩梦场景。作为报复，伊朗已向沙特、阿联酋、卡塔尔、巴林、科威特和阿曼发射逾千导弹与无人机。《纽约时报》统计的官方报告显示，袭击已造成这些国家至少七人死亡。Their governments are now facing uncomfortable questions about whether their stockpile of missile interceptors and strategic food reserves can last through the war.这些国家的政府如今面临棘手问题：库存的导弹拦截弹和战略粮食储备能否撑过这场战争。周二，阿拉伯联合酋长国迪拜滨海区。多年来，波斯湾国家一直担忧与伊朗爆发战争的可能性，这场战争将使导弹和无人机飞抵他们光鲜靓丽的城市。More dangerous questions loom: Will they join the fight against Iran and risk a major escalation against them? Or will they double down on diplomacy even though their lobbying to prevent the war seems to have made little impact?更危险的问题迫在眉睫：它们是否要加入对伊朗作战，令自己冒着冲突大幅升级的风险；抑或继续加倍投入外交努力——尽管此前阻止战争的游说似乎收效甚微。“The Gulf states are caught in a strategic squeeze between the United States and Iran in a conflict they did not choose and are trying to manage this with a mix of diplomacy, restraint and defensive readiness,” said Abdullah Baabood, an Omani academic at Waseda University in Japan.“海湾国家在一场并非自己选择的冲突中被夹在美国与伊朗之间，正试图以外交、克制和防御准备相结合的方式应对，”日本早稻田大学的阿曼学者阿卜杜拉·巴阿布德表示。As they try to balance these interests, Gulf governments are hoping to keep the region stable “even as external powers clash around them,” he said.他还说，在努力平衡这些利益的同时，海湾国家政府仍希望维持地区稳定，“即便外部势力在其周边激烈对抗。”The list of targets hit by Iran in the Gulf has included not only American military bases and embassies in the Gulf, but also energy installations, airports and resorts. In the Middle East business capital of Dubai — a city that was effectively immune to regional conflicts for decades — explosions shattered apartment windows and five-star hotels caught fire.伊朗在海湾地区打击的目标不仅包括美军基地和使馆，还涵盖能源设施、机场和度假胜地。在数十年几乎不受地区冲突影响的中东商业之都迪拜，爆炸震碎了公寓窗户，数家五星级酒店起火。“The inability of key Gulf states to dissuade President Trump from maximalist Israeli notions of chaotic regime change in Iran shows the traditional limits of their influence in Washington when it comes to regional security,” said Yasmine Farouk, the director of the Gulf and Arabian Peninsula project for the International Crisis Group.“海湾核心国家未能阻止特朗普总统接受以色列的极端主张，即令伊朗在混乱中发生政权更迭，这显示出它们在地区安全问题上对华盛顿影响力的传统局限，”国际危机组织海湾与阿拉伯半岛项目主任亚斯明·法鲁克说。周二在科威特城，参加两名士兵的葬礼的人群。The stakes rose on Monday, when the U.S. State Department issued a warning to American citizens across a dozen Arab countries to “depart now via commercial means.” It did not mention that airspace had already been closed in many of those nations, leaving few viable escape routes.周一，局势进一步升级，美国国务院向十多个阿拉伯国家的美国公民发出警告，要求“立即通过商业渠道离境”。声明未提及这些国家的许多空域已关闭，几乎没有可行的撤离航线。“If the Iranian threat and Israeli war machine persist, then the future is not promising,” Ms. Farouk said.“如果伊朗的威胁和以色列的战争机器持续存在，未来将不容乐观，”法鲁克表示。For Gulf governments, both Iran and Israel pose risks to the regional stability that their economic prosperity depends on. Oman and Qatar have cultivated friendly relations with Iran, and over the past few years, the Emirates and Saudi Arabia have also built deeper ties with Iran to lower its potential threat.对海湾国家政府而言，伊朗和以色列都对其经济繁荣所依赖的地区稳定构成威胁。阿曼和卡塔尔与伊朗保持友好关系，过去几年，阿联酋和沙特也与伊朗深化关系，以降低潜在威胁。Mohammed Baharoon, the head of B’huth, a research center in Dubai, predicted that the Gulf nations will try to de-escalate tensions even after these attacks.迪拜研究中心B’huth负责人穆罕默德·巴哈伦预测，即便遭遇袭击，海湾国家仍会努力缓和紧张局势。And even though Iran and its proxies have stirred tensions and violence in the Middle East in recent years, Mr. Baharoon said, “Israel and the U.S. continue to be the main cause of instability in the region.”巴哈伦表示，尽管伊朗及其代理人近年在中东制造紧张与暴力，但“以色列和美国仍是该地区不稳定的主要根源”。Arab countries share that view. For a generation, people have watched successive U.S. wars and conflicts started by its allies wielding American weapons that leave entire countries in tatters. While Gulf leaders have built warm relationships with Mr. Trump and his family, they are also wary of his unpredictability, analysts say.阿拉伯国家普遍持这一观点。整整一代人目睹美国接连发动战争，其盟友使用美国武器挑起冲突，让一些国家支离破碎。分析人士称，尽管海湾国家领导人与特朗普及其家族建立了良好关系，但也对他的不可预测性保持警惕。周日卡塔尔多哈的伊朗导弹袭击。While Israeli and American officials might believe that the benefits of potential regime change in Iran could override the potential consequences of the war, Mr. Baharoon said he was “not sure this is an outcome that we will see in the remaining part of a Trump presidency.”法鲁克表示，美以官员或许认为，伊朗政权更迭的潜在收益可能超过战争后果，但他“不确定在特朗普剩余任期内能看到这个结果的实现”。If the war ends up toppling or weakening the Iranian regime, Gulf leaders would be forced to face another uncomfortable issue. Iran is a regional rival and a persistent security threat to some Gulf countries, especially to Saudi Arabia. But Gulf officials and analysts said they saw Iran’s power as a check on Israel’s regional ambitions.如果战争最终推翻或削弱伊朗政权，海湾国家领导人将被迫面对另一个棘手问题。伊朗是地区对手，对部分海湾国家尤其是沙特构成持续安全威胁。但海湾地区官员与分析人士表示，他们认为伊朗的力量可以制衡以色列的地区野心。And even though several Gulf rulers have cultivated closer ties with Israel in recent years, none of them want a Middle East dominated by the nation.尽管近年多名海湾统治者积极发展与以色列的关系，但无人希望出现一个由以色列主导的中东。Some Gulf officials have come to view Israel as a threat to regional security, too, according to analysts. Israel has become increasingly belligerent since the Iran-backed Hamas led an attack on the country on Oct. 7, 2023, that killed about 1,200 people.分析人士称，部分海湾官员已开始将以色列也视为地区安全威胁。自2023年10月7日伊朗支持的哈马斯袭击以色列，造成约1200人死亡后，以色列变得愈发好战。Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim Al-Thani, a former Qatari prime minister, warned in a series of social media posts this week that once this war ends, “new dynamics will emerge in the region,” and “Israel is likely to wield considerable influence.”卡塔尔前首相哈马德·本·贾西姆·阿勒萨尼本周在一系列社交媒体帖文中警告，一旦战争结束，“地区将出现新态势，”并且“以色列可能掌握巨大的影响力”。Sheikh Hamad urged the Gulf states not to be drawn “into a direct confrontation with Iran” and called for greater self-reliance. What had happened this week “compels the Gulf to reassess its strategic outlook to ensure that we are not drawn into conflicts that do not serve our interests,” he added.哈马德敦促海湾国家不要被“拖入与伊朗的直接对抗”，并呼吁加强自主能力。他补充说，本周发生的一切“迫使海湾重新评估战略前景，确保不被卷入不符合自身利益的冲突”。周一，迪拜国际机场的到达大厅空无一人。“This reassessment requires building a credible deterrent capability that relies less on external allies and more on our own collective capacities,” Sheikh Hamad added.“这一重新评估需要建立可靠的威慑能力，更少依赖外部盟友，更多依靠我们自身的集体力量，”哈马德表示。Gulf officials have so far at least publicly indicated that they are seeking to de-escalate the war, not join it.截至目前，海湾官员至少在公开层面表示，他们寻求缓和战争，而非加入战争。“We are in contact with our allies in the region and with all those concerned to discuss de-escalation,” Majed al-Ansari, a Qatari foreign ministry spokesman, said in a news media briefing on Tuesday. “Our focus is on defending our homeland.”“我们正与地区盟友及有关各方接触，讨论缓和局势，”卡塔尔外交部发言人马吉德·安萨里周二在新闻发布会上表示。“我们的重点是保卫祖国。”The United Arab Emirates, which has faced the brunt of the Iranian attacks this week, also believes that diplomacy remains the only viable path to ending the regional crisis, Reem Al-Hashimy, an Emirati minister of state, told a news media briefing on Tuesday.在本周伊朗发起的袭击中，阿联酋首当其冲，该国国务部长雷姆·阿尔哈希米周二在新闻发布会上表示，外交仍是结束地区危机的唯一可行途径。“The military solution will only lead to more crises,” she said.“军事解决方案只会带来更多危机，”她说。Ismaeel Naar自阿联酋阿布扎比、Rania Khaled自开罗对本文有报道贡献。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。