USD/JPY Can Yen Bears Finally Force a 160 Test?U.S. Dollar / Japanese YenFOREXCOM:USDJPYFOREXcomUSD/JPY remains a big driver for the USD but this week's Dollar strength appears to be coming from the Euro, which makes sense given both the impact of oil prices on the economy combined with the US relationship with NATO. But for USD-strength to remain a thing, we'll probably need to see USD/JPY refraining from a breakdown as the long-term carry position remains in the pair. USD/JPY has just pushed up to a fresh monthly high and ever since the intervention in the summer of 2024, bulls have seemed frightened of a re-test of the 160.00 level - even when both fundamental and technical conditions were ripe for such in early 2025 and 2026 trade. What could ultimately drive a pullback here is that same impact of oil prices, which Kazuo Ueda has already spoken on. In late-January it was the threat or fear of higher BoJ rates that knocked both USD/JPY and the USD back, which then buoyed even larger components of the DXY basket like the Euro and GBP. This could even happen without USD/JPY losing its bullish structure as the 154.45-155.00 zone still remains a key area for trends - and for invalidation - it's the 151.95-152.50 zone that has so far caught two significant swing lows following aggressive sell-offs in the pair. If price gets below that we're likely seeing larger cases of carry unwind and that's when bullish biases should come into question. - js