Mohamed Salah’s changing role and numbers explained

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Mohamed Salah’s changing role and numbers explainedShareThis time last season, Mohamed Salah was on 27 goals and 14 assists in the Premier League. He finished his record breaking campaign with 29 goals and 18 assists as the Reds claimed the title in Arne Slot’s first season in charge. By Sam McGuireNow, with nine matches left to play, the Liverpool legend finds himself on five goals and six assists in the English top-flight. For added context here, he’d found the back of the net five times by October last season and was on six assists in November. It’s been quite the drop off. The general consensus seems to be that, after playing a lot of football, to an extreme physical level in a Jürgen Klopp team, he’s finally lost his legs. After all, Father Time comes for us all. Salah’s season summary – this season and lastBut is there more to it than just a player finally ageing out of being a top level talent? Can you really go from posting record-breaking numbers to possibly failing to hit double digits in a Premier League campaign for the first time in your Liverpool career in the space of 12 months? It is possible. But is it really likely? The only way you could really make a fair assessment would be if Salah was platformed in the same system and environment as last season. If everything was as close to identical as can be but his performances weren’t close to being the same, it would be a player problem. But nothing is the same at Liverpool and that is having a significant impact on his output. There was a huge summer overhaul at Anfield and the attack was revamped. Out went Luís Diaz and Darwin Núñez, in came Florian Wirtz, Alexander Isak and Hugo Ekitike. The tragic loss of Diogo Jota also needs to be taken into account here. Trent Alexander-Arnold departed, cutting Salah’s supply line, and Dominik Szoboszlai, Salah’s legs last season, moved to accommodate Wirtz. Salah went from being the undisputed main man in attack to being a cog in a heavily changed forward line. And yet expectations didn’t change. Without the safety net of a lot of goals, the Egypt skipper’s performances are being put under the microscope. In the eyes of many, they simply aren’t stacking up. But his role impacts his output. If his role has changed, which it has, it’s bound to have an impact on his output. This is what we’re witnessing this season. Last season, Salah had an Expected Goals per 90 average of 0.68 and a Non-Penalty xG average of 0.49. He was taking over 3.5 shots on a per 90 basis, having 10.5 touches in the opposition box and carving out 2.4 chances worth 0.24 Expected Assists. His game was based on volume as a goal threat. Give him plenty of chances to score and he’ll put the ball in the back of the net. What helped him a little last season was his finishing too. He turned an xG total of 25.37 into a xG on Target total of 28.7 due to his placement. Penalties boosted these numbers too. He scored nine and had a Non-Penalty xG total of 18 in the Premier League. This term, he’s scored just one penalty in the English top-flight. Salah’s shot map in the Premier League this seasonBut Salah, to be an effective goal threat, needed volume. It’s been the case throughout his entire career. This season, that volume has been stripped back and we’re seeing the consequences of that. He is underperforming his xG total of 6.53 and this is likely due to poor finishing (5.03 xG On Target). But he’s getting fewer opportunities to right these wrongs, with shots per 90 dropping to 2.7. He’s also having significantly fewer touches in the box (7.7). He’s in less threatening areas this season, so he’s bound to be less of a threat. He’s still a creator though, with 2.11 chances per 90 and an Expected Assists average of 0.21. When Liverpool are able to get their No,11 into favourable areas, he’s impactful. They managed this against Brighton in the FA Cup.Salah heatmap vs. BrightonHe was very much an inside forward against the Seagulls as opposed to a winger. The result? A season high FotMob rating of 9.1 after a goal and an assist. Salah also created four chances at Anfield, won one penalty and had five shots. He completed 75% of his attempted dribbles and had 11 touches in the box. It was quintessential Salah. Not bad for a player who had lost their legs. In fact, since coming back from AFCON, he has four assists and three goals in 10 appearances across all competitions. Salah’s heatmap vs. WolvesIn the loss to Wolves, he had more touches than usual (70), but most of them came in deeper areas. He was, once again, operating on the touchline as a winger. The 33-year-old has never been a winger. He’s not going to transform into one as he heads into his mid-30s either. He’s an inside forward and when used as that, he’s a threat. Age will be catching up to him but this decline is very much tied to the role rather than the individual. (Cover image from IMAGO)You can follow every game from the Premier League with FotMob this season – featuring deep stats coverage, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.Mohamed Salah’s changing role and numbers explainedThis time last season, Mohamed Salah was on 27 goals and 14 assists in the Premier League. He finished his record breaking campaign with 29 goals and 18 assists as the Reds claimed the title in Arne Slot’s first season in charge. By Sam McGuireNow, with nine matches left to play, the Liverpool legend finds himself on five goals and six assists in the English top-flight. For added context here, he’d found the back of the net five times by October last season and was on six assists in November. It’s been quite the drop off. The general consensus seems to be that, after playing a lot of football, to an extreme physical level in a Jürgen Klopp team, he’s finally lost his legs. After all, Father Time comes for us all. Salah’s season summary – this season and lastBut is there more to it than just a player finally ageing out of being a top level talent? Can you really go from posting record-breaking numbers to possibly failing to hit double digits in a Premier League campaign for the first time in your Liverpool career in the space of 12 months? It is possible. But is it really likely? The only way you could really make a fair assessment would be if Salah was platformed in the same system and environment as last season. If everything was as close to identical as can be but his performances weren’t close to being the same, it would be a player problem. But nothing is the same at Liverpool and that is having a significant impact on his output. There was a huge summer overhaul at Anfield and the attack was revamped. Out went Luís Diaz and Darwin Núñez, in came Florian Wirtz, Alexander Isak and Hugo Ekitike. The tragic loss of Diogo Jota also needs to be taken into account here. Trent Alexander-Arnold departed, cutting Salah’s supply line, and Dominik Szoboszlai, Salah’s legs last season, moved to accommodate Wirtz. Salah went from being the undisputed main man in attack to being a cog in a heavily changed forward line. And yet expectations didn’t change. Without the safety net of a lot of goals, the Egypt skipper’s performances are being put under the microscope. In the eyes of many, they simply aren’t stacking up. But his role impacts his output. If his role has changed, which it has, it’s bound to have an impact on his output. This is what we’re witnessing this season. Last season, Salah had an Expected Goals per 90 average of 0.68 and a Non-Penalty xG average of 0.49. He was taking over 3.5 shots on a per 90 basis, having 10.5 touches in the opposition box and carving out 2.4 chances worth 0.24 Expected Assists. His game was based on volume as a goal threat. Give him plenty of chances to score and he’ll put the ball in the back of the net. What helped him a little last season was his finishing too. He turned an xG total of 25.37 into a xG on Target total of 28.7 due to his placement. Penalties boosted these numbers too. He scored nine and had a Non-Penalty xG total of 18 in the Premier League. This term, he’s scored just one penalty in the English top-flight. Salah’s shot map in the Premier League this seasonBut Salah, to be an effective goal threat, needed volume. It’s been the case throughout his entire career. This season, that volume has been stripped back and we’re seeing the consequences of that. He is underperforming his xG total of 6.53 and this is likely due to poor finishing (5.03 xG On Target). But he’s getting fewer opportunities to right these wrongs, with shots per 90 dropping to 2.7. He’s also having significantly fewer touches in the box (7.7). He’s in less threatening areas this season, so he’s bound to be less of a threat. He’s still a creator though, with 2.11 chances per 90 and an Expected Assists average of 0.21. When Liverpool are able to get their No,11 into favourable areas, he’s impactful. They managed this against Brighton in the FA Cup.Salah heatmap vs. BrightonHe was very much an inside forward against the Seagulls as opposed to a winger. The result? A season high FotMob rating of 9.1 after a goal and an assist. Salah also created four chances at Anfield, won one penalty and had five shots. He completed 75% of his attempted dribbles and had 11 touches in the box. It was quintessential Salah. Not bad for a player who had lost their legs. In fact, since coming back from AFCON, he has four assists and three goals in 10 appearances across all competitions. Salah’s heatmap vs. WolvesIn the loss to Wolves, he had more touches than usual (70), but most of them came in deeper areas. He was, once again, operating on the touchline as a winger. The 33-year-old has never been a winger. He’s not going to transform into one as he heads into his mid-30s either. He’s an inside forward and when used as that, he’s a threat. Age will be catching up to him but this decline is very much tied to the role rather than the individual. (Cover image from IMAGO)You can follow every game from the Premier League with FotMob this season – featuring deep stats coverage, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.