BLACKI MIGLIOZZI, CHRISTIAAN TRIEBERT, PETER EAVIS, KEITH COLLINS, JACQUELINE GU, REBECCA F. ELLIOTT2026年3月5日袭击开始前后霍尔木兹海峡附近的船只。注：显示时间为伊朗标准时间。该地区部分船只发送虚假位置，部分船只偶尔停止位置广播，可能未在图中反映。位置数据较少的船只以较浅颜色显示。来源：Kpler。 Every day, around 80 oil and gas tankers typically pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway off Iran’s southern coast that carries a fifth of the world’s oil and a significant amount of natural gas. 通常，每天有约80艘油气运输船只通过霍尔木兹海峡。这条位于伊朗南海岸的狭窄水道承载了全球五分之一的石油和相当一部分天然气的运输。On Monday, just two oil and gas tankers appear to have crossed the strait, according to a New York Times analysis of shipping activity from Kpler, an industry data firm. On Tuesday, one tanker passed through. 通过分析行业数据公司Kpler的航运活动数据，《纽约时报》发现，周一似乎仅有两艘油气运输船只穿过该海峡，周二仅有一艘油轮通过。“It’s a de facto closure,” said Dan Pickering, chief investment officer of Pickering Energy Partners, a Houston financial services firm. “You’ve got a significant number of vessels on either side of the strait but no one is willing to go through.” 休斯顿金融服务公司Pickering Energy Partners的首席投资官丹·皮克林表示：“这实际上等同于封锁。海峡两侧都有大量船只滞留，但没人愿意冒险通过。”Tankers have been staying away from Hormuz since the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran that began on Saturday. A prolonged conflict could ripple broadly across the global economy, threatening the energy supplies of countries halfway around the world and stoking inflation. 自上周六美以对伊朗发动袭击以来，油轮一直远离霍尔木兹海峡。长期冲突可能引发全球经济广泛的连锁反应，威胁到半个地球之外国家的能源供应，并推高通胀。International oil prices have climbed 12 percent since the fighting began, trading Tuesday around $81 a barrel, and natural gas prices have surged in Europe and in Asia. 自战斗开始以来，国际油价已上涨12%，周二交易价格在每桶81美元左右；同时，欧洲和亚洲的天然气价格也大幅飙升。A senior Iranian military official threatened this week to “set on fire” any ships traveling through the Strait of Hormuz. Vessels in the region have already come under attack. Several oil and gas facilities have also been struck or affected by nearby shelling, though the damage did not initially appear to be catastrophic. 一名伊朗将领本周威胁要将所有经过霍尔木兹海峡的船只“付之一炬”。该地区已经有船只遭到袭击。数个石油和天然气设施也遭到炮击或受到影响，尽管损失初步看来不算太严重。受损船只和能源设施所在位置。注：截至北京时间周三凌晨3点的损失情况。来源：Kpler、科威特国家石油公司、沙特能源部、Planet Labs、卡塔尔能源公司、英国海上贸易行动办公室及Vanguard Tech。A fire broke out Tuesday at a major energy hub in Fujairah, United Arab Emirates, from the falling debris of a downed drone, the authorities said. On Monday, Qatar halted production of liquefied natural gas, or fuel that has been cooled so that it can be transported on ships, after attacks on its facilities.阿联酋当局表示，由于一架被击落无人机的碎片坠落，阿联酋富查伊拉的一个主要能源枢纽周二发生火灾。周一，卡塔尔在设施遭到袭击后停止了液化天然气的生产。液化天然气是一种经过冷却处理、便于船舶运输的燃料。据沙特能源部称，周一两架伊朗无人机被拦截后碎片坠落，导致沙特拉斯坦努拉炼油厂的设施起火。The sharp reduction in tanker traffic is reducing the supply of oil and gas to world markets, pushing up prices for both commodities. And the longer that ships stay away from the Strait of Hormuz, the less oil and gas get out to the world, which could raise prices even more. 运输流量锐减正在减少世界市场的油气供应，推高了这两种大宗商品的价格。船只远离霍尔木兹海峡的时间越长，运往全球的油气就越少，这可能会进一步推高价格。Shipping companies have paused their tankers to protect their crew and cargo, and because insurance companies are charging significantly more to cover vessels in the conflict area. 航运公司已暂停运输船只的航行，以保护船员和货物，部分原因也是保险公司对冲突地区的船舶承保费用显著增加。On Tuesday, President Trump said that “if necessary,” the U.S. Navy would begin escorting tankers through the strait. He also said a U.S. government agency would begin offering “political risk insurance” to shipping lines in the area. 周二，特朗普总统表示，“如果有必要，”美国海军将开始为通过海峡的运输船只护航。他还表示，一家美国政府机构将开始向该地区的航运公司提供“政治风险保险”。In addition to tankers, other large vessels regularly go through the strait, including car carriers and container ships. In normal conditions, nearly 160 make the trip each day. 除油气外，汽车运输船和集装箱船等其他大型船只也会频繁通过该海峡。在正常情况下，每天约有160艘此类船只往返。Some ships in the region turn off the devices that broadcast their positions, while others transmit false locations — making it hard to give a full picture of the traffic in the strait. 该地区的一些船只会关闭广播其位置的设备，有一些会发送虚假位置，这使得人们很难全面掌握海峡内的交通状况。The Shiva is a small oil tanker that has repeatedly faked its location, according to TankerTrackers.com, which tracks global oil shipments. It is suspected of carrying sanctioned Iranian oil, according to Kpler. The Shiva was one of the two tankers that crossed the strait on Monday. 根据追踪全球石油运输的TankerTrackers.com，湿婆号是一艘反复伪造位置的小型油轮。Kpler公司怀疑该船运载的是受制裁的伊朗石油。它是周一穿过海峡的两艘油轮之一。The oil and gas that typically move through the strait come from big producing countries like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran and United Arab Emirates, and are exported around the world. 通常流经该海峡的石油和天然气来自沙特阿拉伯、伊拉克、伊朗和阿联酋等主要产油国，并出口到世界各地。穿越海峡的油气运输船只的航线。注：包括自1月1日起所有油轮和天然气运输船。来源：Kpler。In 2024, more than 80 percent of the oil and gas transported through the Strait of Hormuz went to Asia. China, India, Japan and South Korea were the top importers, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. 根据美国能源信息署的数据，2024年通过霍尔木兹海峡运输的石油和天然气中，有80%以上运往了亚洲，其中中国、印度、日本和韩国是最大的进口国。Countries have energy stockpiles that could last them into the coming months, but a continued shutdown of the strait could damage their economies. 各国虽拥有可维持数月的能源储备，但海峡持续关闭可能会损害其经济。Several big disruptions have roiled supply chains in recent years, but the tanker standstill in the Strait of Hormuz could have an outsize impact. 近年来，数次重大动荡扰乱了供应链，但霍尔木兹海峡的油气运输停摆可能会产生格外巨大的影响。翻译：经雷点击查看本文英文版。