Bitcoin (BTC) climbed over 4% on Wednesday, March 4, 2026,touching an intraday high of $71,890, the strongest level in nearlya month, before pulling back to trade around $71,000 at thetime of writing. The move comes after a brutal stretch that saw the world'slargest cryptocurrency drop to the $60,000-$62,500 zone twice in the past twoweeks, dragged lower by the Iran war shock that simultaneously sent goldsurging to $5,400 and oil spiking 13%. Bitcoin, unlike gold, moved withequities on that geopolitical event, not against them. In this article, I will examine why Bitcoin is surgingtoday, analyzing the BTC/USD chart and checking the newest Bitcoin pricepredictions, based on my over a 15 years’ experience as an analyst and retailinvestor.Follow me on X for real-time Bitcoin marketanalysis: @ChmielDkWhy Bitcoin Is Rising Today?The bounce has several identifiable drivers, none of whichindividually represents a fundamental shift in the trend, but together theycreated enough buying pressure to push BTC back to the upper edge of itsconsolidation range.The most mechanical reason is that funding ratesturned deeply negative during the Iran war selloff. As Adam Saville-Brown, Head of Commercial at TesseractGroup, explains: "The leverage has been flushed. A subset of whaleaddresses has been accumulating during the drawdown, and funding rates aredeeply negative. That combination typically precedes a directional move, notfurther capitulation." When shorts are overcrowded and leverage iscleared, even modest buying pressure can trigger an outsized move upward.Regulatory optimism added fuel. Paul Howard of Wincentnotes: "There was speculation circulating in the US that the Clarity Actwas close to being signed into law. This helped lift many altcoins relative tomajor assets, as they are expected to be among the biggest long-termbeneficiaries of the legislation." A clear regulatory framework for digital assets in the USwould be structurally bullish for the entire crypto market, and the merespeculation around it was enough to move prices on Wednesday.There is also the stablecoin rotation dynamic buildingquietly beneath the surface. Stablecoins now account for roughly 13% oftotal crypto market capitalisation, up from around 11% before the Iranescalation, according to Saville-Brown. That capital needs to go somewhere.With BTC dominance holding above 56%, the market has already made its viewclear: when rotation out of stables begins, Bitcoin gets the first allocation.Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Same Consolidation, New TestAs shown on my chart, Wednesday's 4% surge changes verylittle about the structural picture. Bitcoin is testing the upperboundary of the one-month consolidation range, which I identifybetween $70,000 and $72,000 on the upside. The lower boundaryof this same range sits at $60,000-$62,500, defined by the February5-6 lows and retested on February 24 and February 28. The metal is bouncingbetween these levels at the lowest prices since October-November 2024.The $72,000 zone is a well-established resistance. A Headand Shoulders neckline sits at this exact level on the higher timeframe chart,and if Bitcoin decisively breaks and sustains below $72,000 rather than aboveit, the technical measured move points toward $44,000. Breaking higher through$72,000 with conviction would revive hopes of a recovery toward $76,000 and the50-day EMA, but even that would only bring Bitcoin to the next wall ofresistance.Above the current consolidation, my chart shows a series ofimportant obstacles. $74,000-$75,000 is where the 50 EMA sits,while $76,000 marks the April 2025 lows, a level that hasacted as meaningful resistance on multiple tests. Beyond that, the entire $74,000-$85,000zone represents the lower boundary of the November-December 2025consolidation, a supply area loaded with sellers who bought near those levelsand have been waiting to exit.The only level that would signal a genuine technical trendchange on my chart is $90,000, where the 200-day EMA currentlyruns. Bitcoin is trading approximately 27% below that level right now. Untilprice reclaims the 200 EMA, every rally, including today's 4% move, remains abounce within a downtrend.My expectation from here is swing trading behawior ratherthan a directional breakout. I anticipate a return toward the lowerconsolidation boundary from current levels. If $60,000 breaks withconviction, my downside target is $50,000, the August 2024 lows,representing a further 30% decline from Wednesday's price.Bitcoin Is Not a Safe Haven: The Iran War Confirmed ItThe events of last weekend settled a debate that has runthrough the crypto community for years. When US-Israel strikes on Iran killedSupreme Leader Khamenei and shut the Strait of Hormuz, gold surged 2% to $5,390 per ounce. Bitcoin fell to$63,000.Adam Saville-Brown of Tesseract Group is unambiguous:"It has become clear over the past several weeks that Bitcoin does notfunction as a safe haven when geopolitical risk materialises. The strikes onIran have confirmed that at scale. Bitcoin's initial move was with equities,not gold. That confirms the risk classification."The transmission mechanism ran through the dollar. The DXYhit 99.4, a five-week high, as oil-driven inflation expectationsreset rate cut probabilities. Saville-Brown explains: "The geopolitical transmissionis straightforward. The Strait of Hormuz closure pushed Brent into the $80s.The oil shock feeds inflation expectations, and inflation expectations supportthe dollar. A stronger dollar applies pressure across risk assets, includingBTC. Crypto did what it has done in every geopolitical stress test since 2020:it traded as a high-beta risk asset, not a safe haven."Bitcoin's recovery from $63,000 back toward $71,000 has beenfaster than equities, but Saville-Brown notes this is not a bullish signal:"The recovery has been faster than equities, which tells you more aboutderivatives positioning than safe-haven demand." Negative funding ratesand liquidated shorts explain the speed of the bounce. Conviction buying doesnot.Bitcoin Price Predictions 2026: From $50,000 to $400,000The institutional forecast range for Bitcoin in 2026 isextraordinary in its breadth, and Wednesday's price of $71,000 sits near theabsolute bottom of it.Macroeconomist Henrik Zeberg published his March 2026portfolio outlook just days ago: "Bitcoin rallies to $110,000-$120,000 inthe primary scenario, fueled by Risk-On Fever, ETF inflows, and continuedinstitutional adoption." He also outlined a secondary scenario with 25%probability: a climb to $140,000-$150,000 if the cycleextends.CoinShares' James Butterfill projects a range of $120,000-$170,000,with "more favorable price movements likely in the latter half of theyear." JPMorgan's volatility-adjusted gold model suggests $170,000 isin play, while Fundstrat remains the most aggressive at $400,000+.StandardChartered, notably, cut its 2026 target from $300,000 down to $150,000,citing the decline in Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) buying and a shift toward aconsolidation phase rather than outright accumulation. Carol Alexander of theUniversity of Sussex frames the range more conservatively: a"high-volatility range between $75,000 and $150,000 with a centraltendency around $110,000."Myown bear target of $50,000 if $60,000 breaks sits well outside even themost conservative institutional range, which underlines how much of the currentprice action is driven by technical positioning rather than fundamentalrepricing. Getting from $71,000 to $150,000 requires a 111% rally and clearingthe 200 EMA at $90,000 first. Getting from $71,000 to $50,000 requires only a30% decline and a break of one support level.FAQ, Bitcoin Price AnalysisWhy is Bitcoin going up today, March 4, 2026?Bitcoin surged 4% to $71,890 on Wednesday, its highest levelin nearly a month, driven by three main factors. Deeply negative funding ratesfrom the Iran war selloff created a short squeeze as leverage was cleared fromthe system. Speculation that the US Clarity Act for digital assets is close tobeing signed into law lifted crypto broadly. AHow high can Bitcoin go in 2026?Institutional forecasts range from Carol Alexander'sconservative $75,000-$150,000 range to JPMorgan's $170,000 model andFundstrat's $400,000+ bull case. Macroeconomist Henrik Zeberg's primaryscenario targets $110,000-$120,000 for March 2026, with a 25% probabilitysecondary scenario of $140,000-$150,000. How low can Bitcoin go in 2026?As shown on my chart, the current lower consolidationboundary sits at $60,000-$62,500, tested twice already in late February. Ifthat level breaks with conviction, my technical target is $50,000,the August 2024 lows, representing approximately 30% further downside fromWednesday's $71,000. The Head and Shoulders neckline at $72,000 points to aneven deeper measured move target of $44,000 if the pattern completes.Is Bitcoin a safe haven during geopolitical crises?The Iran war provided a definitive live test, and the answeris no. When US-Israel strikes killed Supreme Leader Khamenei and shut theStrait of Hormuz on March 1-2, gold surged 2% to $5,390. Bitcoin fell to$63,000 before recovering. This article was written by Damian Chmiel at www.financemagnates.com.