After nearly two decades of holding onto the Chief Minister’s chair in Bihar through political manoeuvring, Nitish Kumar has finally stepped down without announcing a political successor. In this manner, the ‘Nitish era’ in Bihar has come to an end without any major confrontation or resistance.In the twilight phase of his political career, Kumar is now ready to go to the Rajya Sabha. On Thursday, 5 March, he announced on Facebook and X that going to the Rajya Sabha had long been his "heartfelt desire."पिछले दो दशक से भी अधिक समय से आपने अपना विश्वास एवं समर्थन मेरे साथ लगातार बनाए रखा है, तथा उसी के बल पर हमने बिहार की और आप सब लोगों की पूरी निष्ठा से सेवा की है। आपके विश्वास और समर्थन की ही ताकत थी कि बिहार आज विकास और सम्मान का नया आयाम प्रस्तुत कर रहा है। इसके लिए पूर्व में…— Nitish Kumar (@NitishKumar) March 5, 2026This political development may be surprising, but it is not entirely unexpected.During the intense campaigning for 2025 Bihar Assembly elections, it had already begun to be said that Nitish Kumar would remain Chief Minister for at most one more year.But not even a year has passed, and his departure from the Chief Minister’s post has taken place in a peaceful manner.It is believed that Kumar vacated the Chief Minister’s chair for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). But the question remains: why would ‘Sushasan Babu’ step down from the Chief Minister’s post without gaining anything in return? Experts say that the BJP may have agreed to make his son Nishant Kumar the Deputy Chief Minister, and that this may be why he made this ‘sacrifice’.'There Has Been a Desire to...': Nitish Kumar Confirms Move to Rajya SabhaThe Script Was Written in 2025The major political change witnessed in Bihar on 5 March had actually been scripted during the 2025 Assembly elections, when the main opposition party, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), was reduced to just 25 seats, and all the parties of the Mahagathbandhan together managed only 35 seats.Meanwhile, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) registered a historic victory with 202 seats. With 89 seats, the BJP emerged as the largest party in the state, while the Janata Dal (United) [JDU] won 85 seats. Among the NDA’s other allies, the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) won 19 seats, the Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) won five seats, and the Rashtriya Lok Morcha won four seats.For Nitish Kumar, the opposition winning a reasonable number of seats had always been advantageous because it allowed him to keep the BJP under control. Whenever he felt uncomfortable with the BJP, he would leave the NDA and form a government with the Mahagathbandhan. And whenever he felt uncomfortable within the Mahagathbandhan, he would return to the NDA.In the Bihar Assembly elections in 2020, the NDA had won 125 seats while the Mahagathbandhan secured 110 seats. The JDU had won just 43 seats—28 fewer than in the Bihar elections in 2015—while the BJP had won 74 seats. At that time, the Mahagathbandhan was in a strong position, and Nitish Kumar left the BJP midway to join the alliance.But in last year’s Assembly election, the opposition alliance became so weak that even if Nitish Kumar had tried his hardest, forming a Mahagathbandhan government would have been nearly impossible.In such a situation, he had no option except to compromise somewhat and remain with the BJP. His decision to move to the Rajya Sabha is seen as the result of that compromise.However, observers believe this compromise could have far-reaching consequences for Bihar.Which Direction Will Bihar’s Politics Take?Except for a few intervening years, Kumar remained the Chief Minister of Bihar within the NDA government for nearly two decades. Within the NDA, his role was always that of an elder partner. With a few exceptions, he never allowed the BJP’s more aggressive politics to dominate.But now that he will no longer be Chief Minister, experts say the political atmosphere in the state could change significantly.Political analyst and senior journalist Ramakant Chandan sees this development as the end of socialist politics in Bihar.Ramakant Chandan“Socialist politics in Bihar will weaken, and right-wing politics will become unrestrained. For this, Nitish Kumar is directly and indirectly responsible.”The Bihar government’s recent decision to ban the open sale of non-vegetarian food and to make licences mandatory for selling non-vegetarian items is seen as the beginning of this political shift.Chandan added that the timing and manner of Kumar’s exit indicate that immense pressure—amounting almost to blackmail—was exerted on the top leadership of the JDU.“In addition, the faction of upper-caste leaders within the JDU indirectly helped the BJP,” he opined.However, the BJP is unlikely to take any radical steps immediately. Although Kumar will go to the Rajya Sabha, he will still keep an eye on Bihar. The BJP would not want to anger the JDU by taking drastic steps, but the saffron party will gradually strengthen its grip.Nitish Returns as Bihar CM for the 10th Time: What's the Secret of His Success?BJP’s Possible StrategyFormer Tata Institute of Social Sciences (Patna) professor Pushpendra told The Quint that the BJP may begin by targeting commissions and committees.Pushpendra“It will start with commissions and committees. Loyalists of the JDU will be removed from leadership positions in these bodies and replaced with its own people. The same will happen within the bureaucracy. Officials will be pressured to shift their loyalty towards the BJP, and those who do not will be sidelined.”He added that the BJP may also attempt to bring the JDU under its control.“It will begin with JDU units at the panchayat and block levels and later try to bring JDU MPs and MLAs into its fold. Since the BJP government at the Centre currently depends on the JDU’s support, it would want to secure the Central government first," he said. “In this way, the JDU could eventually be reduced to a minority party, and Bihar could be coloured with the politics of religious polarisation."The State of the OppositionOpposition parties—especially the RJD—have still not fully recovered from the shock of their heavy defeat in the 2025 Assembly elections. In such circumstances, it appears unlikely that opposition parties will play a major role in Bihar politics in the near future.If that happens, the BJP will effectively get an open field to act as it wishes.Political analyst Mahendra Suman told The Quint,Mahendra Suman“The RJD leadership is directionless. There is no visible energy among the top leadership. It appears to be in complete hibernation. Meanwhile, the Left continues to operate within its own limited circle. Even the Left’s core support base does not strongly respond to its discourse.”He said that opposition parties must undertake a fundamental reorganisation.“Top leaders of opposition parties should completely rebuild their organisations. Leaders must meet the public and travel to villages. Only then can something change," added Suman.Who Will Be Bihar’s Next Chief Minister?After Nitish Kumar’s announcement that he will move to the Rajya Sabha, the question of who will become the next Chief Minister of Bihar has inevitably begun to arise.Sources told The Quint that the BJP would prefer to appoint its own Chief Minister, but the top leadership of the JDU is not ready for that. Since the JDU currently plays an important role in the Central government, the BJP is also not in a position to exert too much pressure for now.One theory circulating is that the BJP may allow the JDU to choose a Chief Minister—provided the candidate is not a hardline socialist and belongs to an Extremely Backward Class (EBC) or Dalit community.Mahendra Suman said, “If the BJP agrees to a JDU leader becoming Chief Minister, it will prefer someone who is neither an OBC nor a rigid socialist ideologue. It would want someone who can also advance the Hindutva agenda.”He added that if the BJP appoints its own Chief Minister, it may still choose a leader from a Dalit or EBC community. “For more than three decades, Bihar has had an OBC Chief Minister. Now EBC and Dalit communities want leadership from their own groups. Appointing a Dalit or EBC Chief Minister would also be politically advantageous for the BJP, as the party has been focusing on these communities in recent years.”(The author is a Bihar-based journalist. This article was first published in Hindi. Read the original article here.)