The upside momentum in oil prices is waning amid tentative signs of de-escalation

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FUNDAMENTALOVERVIEWOil prices remain supportedamid the US-Iran war and the virtually closed Strait of Hormuz. The bullish momentumhas waned though due to some de-escalatory signals in the past couple of days. Just this morning, the IranianDeputy Foreign Minister said that Iran was ready to abandon its nuclear programon condition that the United States presented a satisfactory alternative offer.Yesterday, we got a NYT report saying that Iran was secretly contacting the USto find a solution to end the war, although the Iranians dismissed the reportas fake news. The market might have alsobeen expecting a de-escalation sooner rather than later as the US stocks remainedresilient despite the negative pressure. We might be one Truth Social post awayfrom a strong relief rally if Trump announces the start of negotiations or thatthe US has reached all its objectives. CRUDE OILTECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we cansee that crude oil extended the gains into the highest level since the lastUS-Iran escalation in June. This is where we can expect the sellers to step inwith a defined risk above the level to position for a drop back below the 70.00handle. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increasethe bullish bets into the 80.00 handle.CRUDE OIL TECHNICALANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we cansee the momentum has been waning into the 78.38 level due to high uncertaintyand conflicting signals on the Strait of Hormuz. There’s not much we can gleanfrom this timeframe, so we need to zoom in to see some more details. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, wehave a minor upward trendline defining the bullish momentum on this timeframe.The buyers will likely continue to lean on the trendline with a defined riskbelow it to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will look for abreak lower to target a pullback into the 70.00 handle next. The red linesdefine the average daily range for today.UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow, we conclude theweek with the US NFP report. Continue to keep an eye on the US-Iran warheadlines as that’s what the market is focused on right now. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.