FUNDAMENTALOVERVIEWUSD:The US dollar skyrocketedin the final part of last week as prospects of a quick end to the war faded andoil resumed the rally towards triple digit levels. Traders continue to priceout the rate cut bets amid surging energy prices. On Wednesday, we have theFOMC policy decision where the central bank is expected to keep interest ratesunchanged with Miran, Waller and Bowman likely dissenting in favour of a ratecut. At this meeting, we will also get the Summary of Economic Projections andthe Dot Plot. The Fed is likely to revisegrowth forecasts lower, while upgrading inflation estimates. The median DotPlot should remain unchanged with one rate cut expected by year-end. Overall,the central bank is likely to stress patience amid the US-Iran war but maintainan easing bias. CAD:On the CAD side, theeconomic data has been surprising to the downside, and last Friday we got avery weak jobsreport. In such a case, we would see traders pricing in rate cuts for theBoC but given the US-Iran war and the surging energy prices, the market isexpecting almost two rate hikes by the end of the year. On Wednesday, we have the Bankof Canada policy decision where the central bank is expected to keep interestrates unchanged amid the geopolitical uncertainty. The BoC might dismiss market-basedinterest rates expectations given the risks to growth though, which could weighon the CAD.Today, we get the CanadianCPI report. As usual, the focus will be mainly on the Trimmed Mean CPI Y/Ywhich is expected at 2.3% vs 2.4% prior. The data might not change much for themarket given the focus on the US-Iran war.USDCAD TECHNICALANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we cansee that USDCAD hasbeen trading in a wide range since February and the price recently surged allthe way back to the resistance around the 1.3750 level. This is where we canexpect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the resistance toposition for a drop back into the 1.3550 support. The buyers, on the otherhand, will look for a breakout to increase the bullish bets into the 1.39handle next.USDCAD TECHNICALANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we havea mid-range support around the 1.3630 level. That should be the first targetfor the sellers. If the price gets there, we can expect the buyers to step inwith a defined risk below the support to position for a rally back into the1.3750 resistance next. USDCAD TECHNICALANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we cansee the price is breaking below the upward trendline that was defining thebullish momentum on this timeframe. From a risk management perspective, the sellerswould have a better risk to reward setup around the downward counter-trendlineto keep targeting the 1.3630 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will wantto see the price breaking above the counter-trendline to position for abreakout above the 1.3750 resistance next. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we get the Canadian CPI report. On Wednesday, we have the BoC policydecision, the US PPI report and the FOMC policy decision. On Thursday, we getthe latest US Jobless Claims figures. The focus remains on the US-Iran war, sokeep an eye on the headlines, especially those regarding the Strait of Hormuz. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.