S&P500 remains highly sensitive to oil and geopoliticsUS 500 (per 1.0)TRADENATION:US500TradeNationMarkets got a boost as oil prices steadied, easing concerns about major disruption through the Strait of Hormuz and reducing the risk of a broader stagflation shock. That helped push inflation expectations lower and supported a risk-on rally, with the S&P 500 rising just over 1% in its strongest performance since the conflict began. With oil pulling back, investors also pared expectations of a more aggressive central bank response. This drove gains across both equities and bonds, while volatility declined and the dollar weakened. The rally was broad, with all sectors advancing and tech stocks leading the move. That optimism is now being tested. Fresh geopolitical tensions and continued uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz have lifted oil prices again, bringing inflation concerns back into focus—particularly as refined fuel prices like diesel move higher. This shift is weighing on sentiment, with futures indicating a weaker open as markets reassess the potential for sustained energy-driven inflation and its impact on policy. Conclusion The S&P 500 remains highly sensitive to oil and geopolitics. While lower oil briefly supported a strong rebound, renewed price increases risk reversing that momentum. Near-term direction will likely hinge on whether oil stabilises again—if it does, equities can recover, but sustained upside in energy prices would increase downside pressure on the index. Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Level 1: 6850 Resistance Level 2: 6895 Resistance Level 3: 6936 Support Level 1: 6700 Support Level 2: 6660 Support Level 3: 6636 This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.