inflation expectations are reshaping the monetary policy framewoGold / U.S. DollarFOREXCOM:XAUUSDWillie_ColetteGeopolitical conflicts are driving up energy prices, and inflation expectations are reshaping the monetary policy framework. The Middle East situation entered its third week, with no signs of de-escalation in the US-Iran conflict. The US launched airstrikes on key Iranian islands and publicly warned that if Iran interfered with shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, the US might take further action against its oil infrastructure. The US also called on the UK, France, Japan, South Korea, and other countries to send warships to safeguard the waterway. Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi responded that the strait is only closed to "enemies and their supporters." These statements have exacerbated market concerns about disruptions to the global energy supply chain. Currently, Brent crude oil prices are around $102 per barrel, up about 45%-50% from pre-conflict levels; WTI crude oil prices are around $95 per barrel, with a similar increase. High energy costs are being passed on to consumers, pushing up core inflationary pressures. The market is beginning to reassess the reaction functions of major central banks: if high oil prices persist, it could lead to increased stagflation risks, forcing policymakers to maintain higher interest rates for a longer period. With the Federal Reserve's March interest rate meeting approaching, the market expects a very high probability that the target range of 3.50%-3.75% will remain unchanged. The CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in June has fallen significantly to a low level, and the expected number of rate cuts for the whole year has been compressed from two to about one. The European Central Bank, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of Canada are also likely to hold rates steady this week, while the Reserve Bank of Australia may raise rates again. This consensus of "higher interest rates for longer" directly suppresses the attractiveness of gold, a non-interest-bearing asset. GOLD GOLD XAUUSD XAUUSD USOIL