MES / ES Futures — 4H Bearish Channel | FOMC Week AheadMicro E-mini S&P 500 Index FuturesCME_MINI_DL:MES1!DambikFUNDAMENTAL CONTEXT ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ HIGH IMPACT WEEK: - FOMC Rate Decision Wednesday March 18 New forecasts may push 2026 rate cut to 2027 => USD bullish => equities bearish - PPI data Wednesday - Middle East conflict escalating Oil above $100 => stagflation fears - Rate cut probability for June dropped from 56% to 23% this week - S&P 500 heading for 3rd straight week of losses - SPX less than 1% above 200-day SMA at 6,604 => critical support zone Bias: BEARISH — FOMC risk dominates ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ TECHNICAL ANALYSIS — 4H ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ Trend: Bearish — clear lower highs + lower lows from peak ~7,050 (Feb 24) to current 6,625 Channel: Descending channel intact - Upper wall: ~6,800 (resistance) - Lower wall: ~6,500 (next target) - Midpoint: ~6,650 (current area) Key levels: - Resistance 1: 6,700 — prev. support flip - Resistance 2: 6,800 — upper channel + swing high - Resistance 3: 6,900 — major supply zone - Current price: 6,625 - Support 1: 6,600 — 200-day SMA (CRITICAL) - Support 2: 6,527 — marked on chart, Nov low Oscillator: ~20-22 — oversold territory => Short-term bounce possible => But oversold does NOT mean reversal in downtrend ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ SCENARIOS ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ PRIMARY BIAS: BEARISH (continuation) Scenario A — Bounce then continuation: Cena bounces to 6,700-6,750 (oversold relief) Then rejection at upper channel => continues down Target: 6,527 then 6,400 Scenario B — Direct breakdown: Break below 6,600 (200-day SMA) => Accelerated selling, target 6,527 then 6,400 => Triggered by hawkish FOMC Wednesday Scenario C — FOMC dovish surprise (less likely): Rate cut hint => squeeze to 6,800-6,900 => Counter-trend only, primary trend still down SHORT SETUP (if bounce to resistance): Entry zone: 6,700 — 6,750 (upper channel retest) Stop Loss: 6,810 (above channel) TP1: 6,600 | TP2: 6,527 R:R = 1:2.1 CAUTION: - No new positions before FOMC Wednesday - Oversold + FOMC = unpredictable short-term move - Wait for confirmation after decision ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ Want this type of analysis in 30 seconds? MES Futures Analyzer — AI Prompt Trend + Channel + NY Open + Earnings Alert illustrious-blini-a3e4f0.netlify.app ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ⚠️ Not investment advice. Educational only.