TDN's Senior Racing Editor Steve Sherack provides analysis for Saturday's pair of GI Kentucky Derby preps–the GII TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds and GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park.Results (Weekend of Feb. 28) – Commandment (Into Mischief) ($6.80 winner of GII Coolmore Fountain of Youth) and Class President (Uncle Mo) ($19.00 winner of GII Rebel) made it a profitable weekend at the windows for this column, both delivering wins in dramatic fashion. Hammond (Charlatan), meanwhile, was a disappointing sixth at 8-1 in the GIII Gotham.GII TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby – Blacksmith (Liam's Map) has the pedigree to really appreciate this 1 3/16-mile distance (his fourth dam is legendary producer Better Than Honour) and he could work out a dream trip sitting just off morning-line favorite and expected pacesetter Chip Honcho (Connect).Runner-up as a maiden with a career-best 94 Beyer Speed Figure in the GII Los Alamitos Futurity last December, Blacksmith was ridden aggressively by Florent Geroux and earned his diploma two starts later going a two-turn mile at Santa Anita last out.He's burned his fair share of money (has frustrating losses doing his best running way too late at 1-1, 2-5 and 3-5) throughout his five-race career, but may have finally turned the corner for Bob Baffert, who makes a rare appearance in NOLA for this. Can't hurt having Geroux back in the irons once again, too.No knocks on the aforementioned GII Fasig-Tipton Risen Star S. runner-up Chip Honcho, who is the clear-cut one to catch beneath Luis Saez.Ultra-impressive two-turn Tampa Bay debut winner and 'TDN Rising Star, presented by Hagyard' Emerging Market (Candy Ride {Arg}) will likely go off favored, even with runner-up that day Powershift (Constitution)'s subsequent no-show in the GIII Tampa Bay Derby.Selection: #7 Blacksmith (6-1).GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks – Black Hornet (Essential Quality)'s pair of eye-catching victories on the grass make him a major player in this first try on the all-weather.The $120,000 OBS March breezer (:10 1/5) rocketed home from last of nine into very slow fractions and finished up in an unreal :28.32 to earn his diploma in his first try on grass for Brendan Walsh at Fair Grounds Feb. 5. He sat a much closer pocket trip and pounced on heavy favorite and 'TDN Rising Star, presented by Hagyard' Touch of Fire (Constitution) to make it two straight in the Black Gold S. Feb. 28.Don't think he'll be anywhere near his 12-1 morning-line quote, but even half of that seems like great value.Fulleffort (Liam's Map) came storming home to finish second in both of the local preps and gets an upgrade in the saddle to Irad Ortiz, Jr.Last year's GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf runner-up and likely favorite Stark Contrast (Caravaggio) will make his first start beyond a mile in this synthetic debut for the same connections as 2024 Jeff Ruby winner Endlessly.Selection: #5 Black Hornet (12-1).The post Handicapping the Kentucky Derby Preps: Louisiana Derby & Jeff Ruby Steaks appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.