3/20/26 - $smci - canary (and some mkt thoughts)Super Micro Computer, Inc.NASDAQ:SMCIVROCKSTAR3/20/26 :: VROCKSTAR :: SMCI canary - there's more here than meets the all seeing eye - you mean to tell me one of nvidia's top 5 customers was playing this game and (we all knew it) and all of a sudden one day this guy gets busted and everyone throws up their hands? - check out prior comments. this was well known for at LEAST a year - bad timing too. right now i think the market might look to "blame" ai infra for over build and for recent weakness - but let's face it, we're long in the business cycle tooth - 10% of people account for >50% of spending - rates are high and ripping higher - a human sac. ritual aka "war" is destroying lives and morale. grotesque. always is. never won't be. - and so the air comes out from where it went most. - keeping a level head here is most important, avoid the obvious traps (like this one) is level 1 - finding parking spots is level 2 and managing risk and reward with proper sizing is level 3 - right now i remain about 50% cash - and of the other 50% deployed, half of this (so 25%) is well hedged earning 5-10% monthly income.. SBET, NU, MELI, WYFI, SE and a few others they're well hedged (selling upside) - tons of opportunities emerging - a water fall here will be interesting but mkt rarely makes it that obvious. i try not to guess, but hard to go into a weekend w/ px action like this and not have a gnarly next week - we will bid sooner than later, but don't get too comfy. might be fun to swing mon/ tue for ST sake, but the goal here is picking up value with reasonable downside and asymmetric upside - stay nimble. headline driven market. we're only 3 months into mid term year with the above macro and majority of young guns haven't seen a business cycle... that's the scary part. - no the sky isn't falling. yes this is normal. "yes" we are probably yet to find a true lower low. you'll know it. it will be an event, everyone will be sufficiently rekt. time is the biggest wrecking ball of all. so maintain your emotions. don't be too hard on yourself. this is the hard part. survive this and we'll have another few great years. but you need lives and ammo to play the survival game in the backyard of the ... i digress. - be well