ANDREW HIGGINS2026年3月17日Digging deep into a field in northwestern China, archaeologists recently uncovered chariot tracks, plumbing and the remnants of an elaborate city gate dating back more than 3,000 years — all traces of an early Chinese dynasty that has been celebrated by Confucian scholars, and also by the Communist Party, as a model of political and social harmony.考古学家最近在中国西北的一片田地里进行考古发掘时，发现了战车车辙、管道设施以及一座3000多年前建造的精巧城门的遗迹——这些都是一个早期中国朝代留下的痕迹，该朝代长期以来一直被儒家学者以及共产党赞誉为政治与社会和谐的典范。The discoveries suggest that the area that is now farmland west of the city of Xi’an, in Shaanxi Province, is part of the long-vanished capital of the Western Zhou, a dynasty exalted throughout Chinese history as the acme of good governance.这些发现表明，位于今天陕西省西安市以西的一片农田，正是早已消失的西周都城的一部分。西周在中国历史上一直被推崇为善治的巅峰。The digging, part of decades-long excavation work in the area, has also shed new light on a bigger question: If the ancient dynasty was so perfect, why did it collapse in chaos, unable to contain external and internal threats? It lasted nearly 300 years but still fell apart in 771 B.C. under pressure from “barbarian” invaders and estranged former allies.这项发掘是当地持续数十年的考古工作的一部分，也为一个更大的问题提供了新的线索：如果这个古代王朝如此完美，为什么最终却在混乱中崩溃，既无法抵御外部威胁，也无法化解内部危机？它延续了近300年，却仍在公元前771年面对“蛮族”入侵者和关系疏远的前盟友的压力时瓦解了。Why seemingly robust political systems crumble has been a central preoccupation of China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, since the 1991 downfall of the Soviet Union. An avid fan of ancient history and archaeology, he visited a museum in Baoji, a city in Shaanxi near the excavation site, in 2024 and inspected ancient bronzes from the Western Zhou dynasty, including one inscribed with “zhongguo,” meaning “middle kingdom,” the earliest known written record of China’s name.自1991年苏联解体以来，看似稳固的政治体系为何会崩塌一直是中国最高领导人习近平关注的核心问题之一。习近平对于古代历史和考古研究有着浓厚的兴趣，2024年他曾到陕西宝鸡的一座博物馆参观，看了西周时期的青铜器，其中一件刻有“中国”（“中央之国”之意）字样的器物，是目前已知最早以文字形式出现“中国”字样的记录。陕西周原博物馆展出的西周青铜器，该馆位于考古发掘地点附近。The traditional explanation for the downfall of the Western Zhou, enshrined in the first century B.C. by Sima Qian, the father of Chinese history, is that the dynasty unraveled because of a beautiful woman who bewitched and led astray its ruler, King You.关于西周灭亡的传统解释来自公元前1世纪的史学家、被称为中国史学之父司马迁所记载的说法：王朝之所以走向崩溃，是因为一位美貌女子蛊惑并带坏了统治者周幽王。Recent archaeological and other evidence, however, has debunked this reading of dynastic decline as a morality play. Instead, the new findings highlight the frailties of a rigidly hierarchical political system grown brittle over time that could not withstand disruptions caused by climate change and internal division.然而，近年来的考古发现和其他证据已经否定了这种把王朝衰亡解释为道德故事的说法。相反，新的研究凸显出：一个等级森严的政治体系随着时间推移变得僵化脆弱，最终难以承受气候变化和内部分裂带来的冲击。Chong Jianrong, the director of the Shaanxi Institute of Archaeology, who has been hunting traces of Western Zhou’s rise and fall for decades, said the woman often blamed for the dynasty’s demise — a concubine named Bao Si — was “just a scapegoat” to explain the ruin of a supposedly golden age.陕西省考古研究院院长种建荣几十年来一直在追寻西周兴衰的遗迹。他表示，那位常被指责导致王朝覆灭的女子——名叫褒姒的妃子——不过是用来解释一个所谓黄金时代覆灭的“替罪羊”。Edward L. Shaughnessy, a leading American authority on ancient China, said Bao Si’s role in the end of the dynasty “is of course just a fairy tale,” possibly concocted as part of “some sort of factional strife at the Zhou court.”美国研究中国上古史的权威学者夏含夷(Edward L. Shaughnessy)表示，褒姒在王朝终结中的作用“当然只是一个神话传说”，可能是为配合“周朝宫廷的某种派系斗争”而编造的。Hailed by Confucius and his followers as a model undone by lust, the dynasty produced many of the core concepts of Chinese civilization, like the “mandate of heaven,” the idea that a ruler holds power because of good governance and loses it through immoral misbehavior.西周被孔子及其追随者称为红颜误国的典型，这个王朝产生了中国文明许多核心概念，比如“天命”思想——统治者因治国贤明而掌权，也会因失德而失权。But, Mr. Chong said of the fall of Western Zhou, “this is not about a beautiful woman causing trouble.”但种建荣谈到西周灭亡时说：“这并不是一个美人祸国的故事。”A recent study led by Chinese scientists in Beijing has now provided what many historians see as a more plausible theory. Using evidence collected from stalagmites, it blamed rapid climate change. Drought and unusual cold caused by a sudden change in the climate 2,800 years ago — just before the collapse of Western Zhou — played a “critical role” in the dynasty’s demise, according to a study published in Communications Earth & Environment, a sister publication to the British scientific journal Nature.现在，北京的中国科学家主持的一项新研究提供了许多史学家认为更为可信的解释。该研究利用从石笋中收集的证据，将西周的灭亡归咎于气候的急剧变化。根据发表在英国科学期刊《自然》的姊妹刊《通讯-地球与环境》上的研究，2800年前——也就是西周灭亡前夕——气候突变引发的干旱和异常寒冷对该王朝的覆灭起到了“关键作用”。A separate study based on the analysis of ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica, which provided a chronology of volcanic activity over two millenniums, found that 62 of 68 Chinese dynastic houses over that period fell after one or more volcanic eruptions — a major cause of short-term climatic shocks throughout history.另一项基于对格陵兰岛和南极洲冰芯分析的研究建立了两千年火山活动的时间序列。结果发现，在这一时间段的68个中国王朝中，有62个是在一次或多次火山喷发之后灭亡的，而火山喷发在历史上往往是短期气候冲击的重要原因陕西省考古研究院党委书记、院长种建荣在西安的办公室。Francis Ludlow, an associate professor of medieval environment history at Trinity College, Dublin, who carried out the research with Chinese and other scholars, said in a telephone interview that he had been surprised by the close correlation between volcanic activity and dynastic decline. “There were way too many eruptions just before collapse dates to be just random coincidences,” he said.都柏林圣三一学院中世纪环境史副教授弗朗西斯·卢德洛与来自中国及其他国家的学者共同开展了这项研究。他在接受电话采访时表示，他对火山活动与王朝衰亡之间的紧密关联感到惊讶。“灭亡前夕发生的火山喷发多得离谱，绝不可能是随机巧合，”他说。Professor Shaughnessy said he had long believed that climatic events before Western Zhou collapsed “probably contributed to the fall, but there were many other reasons for it as well.”夏含夷表示，他一直认为西周灭亡之前的气候事件“可能促成了其灭亡，但此外也还存在其它诸多原因”。Volcanoes spew out aerosol particles that cut sunlight and can play havoc with farming thousands of miles away. Whether an eruption “tips a dynasty over the edge,” however, depends heavily on the extent at the time of warfare and instability, Mr. Ludlow said.火山喷发出的气溶胶粒子能够遮挡阳光，对数千公里外的农业生产造成严重影响。不过拉德洛表示，一场火山喷发“是否能导致一个王朝覆灭”，在很大程度上取决于当时的战争和国家不稳定程度。“Our most interesting finding,” he said, “is not that volcanoes are implicated in dynastic change but that the impact of climatic shock depends on how stable a society was in the lead up to that shock.”“我们最有趣的发现，”他说，“不是火山喷发导致了王朝更迭，而是在于，气候冲击的影响取决于社会在该冲击发生之前的稳定程度。”Mr. Chong, the archaeology institute director, also said that Western Zhou’s own “internal and external contradictions” were key to its downfall.考古研究院的种建荣也表示，西周自身的“内部和外部矛盾”是其衰亡的关键。These included a steady weakening of the royal court’s control over regional rulers as ties of blood to the center were diluted by time, and also a growing conflict with rival “barbarian” powers to the northwest and southeast.这些矛盾包括：随着与中央政权的血缘关系随时间推移而淡化，王庭对地方诸侯的控制逐渐减弱；以及与西北和东南方向的敌对“蛮夷”势力的冲突日益加剧。For centuries, Chinese scholars have struggled to square the Western Zhou’s sudden collapse with the glowing praise heaped upon it by Confucius. “If the Western Zhou dynasty was so perfect an age of good politics and institutions as Confucius tended to suggest, then why had it to fall, and to give rise to a time of political disorder and moral decline?” asked Li Feng, a professor of early Chinese history at Columbia University, in a 2006 book.几个世纪以来，中国学者一直难以将西周的突然灭亡与孔子对它的极力称赞联系起来。“如果西周真的像孔子说的那样，是一个政治制度和道德都完美无缺的时代，那它为什么还会灭亡，并导致随后的政治动乱和道德沦丧？”哥伦比亚大学早期中国历史教授李峰在2006年出版的一本书中问道。Yan Yongqian, a young archaeologist who is part of a team now digging up what is believed to be a side gate to the Western Zhou capital, said the excavation work had revealed evidence of the dynasty’s highly stratified and sophisticated society, as well as its darker side, including human sacrifices.年轻考古学家严镛谦（音）目前正在参与据信为西周都城侧门的遗址发掘工作，他说，考古发现证明西周王朝拥有层次高度分化且复杂精巧的社会，同时也让人们看到了它阴暗的一面，包括人祭的存在。The collapse of the Western Zhou, Mr. Yan said, seems to have happened quickly, accelerated by military attack from outside against defenses weakened by internal discord. An earlier round of excavation uncovered the remains of burned ancient buildings, suggesting a violent end.严镛谦说，西周的覆灭似乎发生得很迅速，内部分歧导致王朝防御能力减弱，外部的军事进攻加速了它的覆灭。早前的一轮挖掘发现了古代建筑的焦土遗迹，表明王朝有一个残酷的结局。“The fall of this state was likely a very sudden event,” Mr. Yan said. Whether Bao Si, the beautiful consort, who, according to ancient legend, was conceived from dragon spittle, existed is unclear and even if she did, he added, “a single person cannot destroy a dynasty.”“这个王国的覆灭很可能是非常突然的，”严镛谦说。关于美丽的妃子褒姒——传说她是由龙的唾液化生而成——是否真的存在还不清楚，他接着说，即使确有其人，“一个人也不能摧毁一个王朝。”陕西考古研究院的研究人员严镛谦在他的城门遗址发掘现场。Since Sima Qian wrote “Historical Records,” each new Chinese dynasty has traditionally commissioned an official history of its predecessor, enumerating supposed moral and other failings that led to its demise.自从司马迁写下《史记》以来，中国的新王朝通常都会下令编撰前朝的官方史书，列举其所谓道德及其他方面的过失，称其导致了王朝的覆灭。Though widely dismissed by modern scholars as fairy tales, stories about the Western Zhou king’s dynasty-destroying infatuation with Bao Si still sometimes crowd out other explanations. At a museum near the excavation site showcasing Western Zhou’s cultural achievements and its sudden demise, exhibits recount how the king grappled with natural disasters and other problems but lost power largely because of his wayward love life.虽然现代学者普遍认为西周君主因迷恋褒姒而亡国的故事是神话，但有些时候，人们仍然想不出其他的解释。在考古现场附近的一家介绍西周文化成就及其突然覆灭的博物馆里，展览讲述了君主如何应对自然灾害和其他问题，但最终还是因为放纵情爱而失去权力的故事。To entertain Bao Si, who was famous for her great but unsmiling beauty, the story goes, he lit beacon fires that were supposed to be used to summon help in times of emergency, a stunt that cost him his life and kingdom when a real attack came in 771 B.C.传说中，为了博褒姒一笑，他点燃了只有在危急时刻才能用来召唤援军的烽火。这个把戏最终让他丢了性命和王国——前771年，外敌真的打了进来。Whether such beacons even existed, however, is disputed and Mr. Yan, the archaeologist, said the story had probably been fabricated to demonize Bao Si and cover up the dynasty’s real problems.然而，当时究竟有没有烽火台是存在争议的，考古学家严镛谦说，这个故事很可能是为了妖魔化褒姒，掩盖王朝真正的问题。Mr. Chong, the Shaanxi province archaeology institute director, said: “When things go wrong you have to find someone to take responsibility,” and, in China’s patriarchal society, that person “is always a woman.” He added, “The real collapse of a society is caused by the system and its mechanisms.”陕西省考古研究院院长种建荣说：“出问题的时候，你必须找到人来承担责任，”在中国以男性为中心的社会，这个人“总会是一个女人”。他接着说，“一个社会真正的崩溃是由制度及其机制造成的。”Li You对本文有研究贡献。Andrew Higgins是《纽约时报》东欧和中欧分社社长，常驻华沙。他近期在上海进行报道。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。获取更多RSS：https://feedx.net https://feedx.site