Fundamental Market Analysis for March 17, 2026 USDJPYUS Dollar/Japanese YenSAXO:USDJPYFresh-Forexcast2004USD/JPY is trading near 159.300, staying at elevated levels because of steady demand for the US dollar and expensive oil. For Japan, this is a sensitive combination: the country depends on imported energy, so a weak yen increases pressure on domestic prices. As long as global investors choose the dollar as a safe-haven asset, it is difficult for the Japanese currency to recover lost ground. However, the potential for further growth in the pair is already limited. The Bank of Japan remains on course for a gradual rate increase as long as inflation persists, while government officials are taking an increasingly firm view of sharp currency market moves. Japan’s Ministry of Finance has already stated that it is ready to take action against excessive volatility, and this signal becomes more important as the pair approaches the 160.000 level. Today, the market is increasingly taking into account the risk of a downward correction. A strong dollar still supports USD/JPY, but the threat of currency intervention and expectations of firmer signals from the Bank of Japan may limit further buying. If the regulator confirms its readiness to act and the authorities intensify their warnings, some market participants may begin to reduce long positions. Trading recommendation: SELL 159.300, SL 159.600, TP 158.400