Fidelity delivers sobering interest-rate message amid Fed pause

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rates, but for a broader economy that’s absorbing shocks to crucial energy markets in real time.According to a new Fidelity Viewpoints newsletter, investors who hoped the Fed could offer certainty may have been disappointed.Fed Chair Jerome Powell made it clear that policymakers are still parsing the implications of the Iran conflict and the recent swings in energy and labor data and that, for now, they face the same uncertainty as investors.Here is more, according to Fidelity, on what investors learned from the March Fed meeting, plus the three big unknowns to watch that may shape the Fed’s next moves.Investors had been expecting a “hold” decision at this meeting well before the Iran conflict.Although the job market has continued to show sluggishness, which might tip the scales toward additional rate cuts, it has not shown signs of a sharp deterioration. More Federal Reserve:Fed Chair Powell sends frustrating message on future interest-rate cutsMeanwhile, in other areas the economy has appeared to start 2026 on firm footing.New manufacturing orders -- a closely watched leading indicator -- have picked up, and tax-related stimulus is beginning to reach consumers and businesses.With inflation still sticky and above target, the data didn’t give the Fed a persuasive reason to resume cutting rates.Although the Middle East conflict adds a new variable to the Fed’s balancing act, the added uncertainty has only strengthened the case for holding policy steady, says Andrew Garvey, lead monetary policy analyst on Fidelity’s Asset Allocation Research Team.“From the Fed’s point of view, there was no strong reason to do anything right now,” he says. “Geopolitical developments have actually given them even more reason to pause, given the heightened uncertainty, and wait for more information.”From here, the outlook for Fed policy becomes much more uncertain as the Fed faces new economic crosswinds on multiple fronts.Here are the key unknowns about how the Iran conflict could impact the Fed’s mission and moves -- even as a change in leadership for the central bank looms.Federal Reserve Bank of New York via FRED® · Federal Reserve Bank of New York via FRED®With oil prices rising markedly since the start of the conflict, there’s little doubt that headline measures of inflation, like the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE), will show an impact once March data is released.Terms and Privacy PolicyPrivacy & Cookie SettingsMore InfoTrending tickersBTC-USD Bitcoin USD 68,853.71 -1,896.61 (-2.68%)AVAV AeroVironment, Inc. 197.72 -13.63 (-6.45%)ETH-USD Ethereum USD 2,079.32 -77.40 (-3.59%)XRP-USD XRP USD 1.40 -0.04 (-2.98%)BTC-CAD Bitcoin CAD 94,508.59 -2,603.28 (-2.68%)PortfolioSign in to access your portfolioSign inTop gainersPL Planet Labs PBC 33.83 +6.87 (+25.48%)PSNYW Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC 5.25 +0.88 (+20.14%)YSS York Space Systems, Inc. 21.07 +3.39 (+19.17%)LBTYB Liberty Global Ltd. 14.17 +2.03 (+16.72%)SEDG 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