EUR/USDEuro/US DollarFX:EURUSDOrmirCobaThe FX outlook is dominated by terms-of-trade differentiation rather than a simple generic risk-off pattern. Goldman Sachs argues that the Iran-war energy shock has interrupted its prior medium-term bearish USD view, supporting near-term dollar strength especially against oil importers in Europe and Asia. ING similarly expects the dollar to remain bid until there is clearer evidence of de-escalation and normal oil flows through Hormuz. MUFG adds that Asia is one of the most exposed regions, given the scale of its reliance on Middle East energy and the resulting current-account vulnerability across several local currencies. In major pairs, EUR/USD remains under pressure in strategic terms even after today’s rebound, with ING identifying 1.1390/1400 as a support area but warning that a renewed energy spike could pull the pair toward 1.12/1.13. Goldman revised its EUR/USD forecasts lower to 1.14 in three months, 1.18 in six months, and 1.20 in twelve months. GBP is slightly better insulated than EUR in some bank frameworks because of less acute energy vulnerability, but sterling still faces a stagflation problem and a less supportive domestic growth backdrop. USD/JPY remains a twoway market: Goldman sees competing inflation-shock weakness and recession-shock haven support, while MUFG and ING both acknowledge ongoing intervention sensitivity near the 160 area. Street View:Goldman Sachs Goldman Sachs says the Iran-war energy shock has abruptly interrupted its prior medium-term bearish USD thesis and restored near-term dollar strength. Goldman Sachs expects USD strength to persist over the next three months, especially against oil importers in Asia and parts of Europe. Goldman Sachs revised EUR/USD lower and argues that terms-of-trade effects should dominate European FX in the near term. MUFG Bank keeps a cautious view on USD/JPY near 160, acknowledging moderate intervention risk but still negative terms-of-trade effects for JPY. MUFG Bank also sees a broadly firmer USD backdrop because Fed ratecut expectations have faded as oil-driven inflation risk rises. ING Bank sees EUR/USD as supported around 1.1390/1400, but still vulnerable to 1.12/1.13 if energy prices move higher again. ING Bank warns that the Fed could push back against market pricing for another cut this year, making the near-term event risk dollar-positive. Morfeus Proprietary Intelligence Pair: EUR/USD Direction: Bearish EUR Primary Target: Below 1.1500 / continuation of pressure from seven-month lows Rationale: Latest market-open prep says EUR/USD rebounded from around a seven-month low but stayed below 1.1500 amid Eurozone energy-shock