BTC - Critical Update for MondayBitcoin / TetherUSBINANCE:BTCUSDTVIAQUANTHere is an updated chart from my last post. For context, refer to my previous post on this setup: So far, the view outlined in my last idea has played out very well. Price did push slightly above the rising wedge (creating a false breakout) but once bears reclaimed the wedge, price fell back toward the lower boundary. In my last post, I marked where the 6H RSI had formed a double top (red arrows) as a sign of exhaustion and a reason for price to move back to the downside. With the slight push above the pattern, price formed one more RSI high at the same level as the previous two. This made the bearish signal even stronger by forming a triple top on the RSI paired with a higher high in price. That formation created a clear bearish divergence, giving bears the confirmation they needed to push price lower. What is equally important is what the RSI is showing now. Momentum had been climbing along the yellow trendline (yellow arrows) before breaking below it. The trendline then flipped from support into resistance with a bearish reclaim, and momentum has since moved toward oversold conditions. This means that even if we see a bounce from the bottom of the wedge or a short-term rally from oversold levels, bears are in control and a larger correction to the downside remains the most likely outcome. I also want to revisit the yellow dotted trendline I added to my previous post which was drawn at a slightly different angle due to the price confluence developing around it. Looking at how it has played out, it is clearly significant. However, it is still too early to determine whether this is the true bottom of the rising wedge or whether the green trendline holds that role. If the yellow dotted trendline is the true bottom, then BTC has already broken down and retested the wedge which would point towards a move back to $63k or lower in the near term. If the yellow dotted trendline is not the true bottom, then the green trendline remains the level to watch. Bulls must hold that trendline to have any chance of a move back to the upside. A break below it would signal a much more severe breakdown. Why Monday Is So Important The next directional move for BTC will likely be determined by how the geopolitical situation unfolds on Monday. If Middle East tensions continue to escalate, as the Trump administration has been signaling, the breakdown will follow and the severe correction I have been outlining for several weeks will begin. If tensions start to ease and agreements are reached, BTC should bounce from the bottom of the rising wedge and make a move back toward the upside. The breakdown remains the more likely scenario given that BTC is still in a macro bear trend, compounded by this bearish rising wedge structure. But that is everything you need to know and watch going into this week.